Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer rates MSTR a Buy with a $435 target, implying 184% upside after the stock lost 53% over the past year.
Riot Platforms defied the crypto selloff, falling just 14% over the year while Coinbase and MARA Holdings each dropped more than 48%.
Strategy holds 846,000 bitcoin but $6.7 billion in convertible debt and relentless share dilution leave shareholders exposed if Bitcoin reverses.
Just released. Our analysts combed the entire stock market and named the ten best stocks to buy right now, and MicroStrategy didn’t make the cut. Enter your email to see the names that beat MSTR. The report is free. Enter your email and see if any of your stocks made the cut.
Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) currently trades at $153.37. Wall Street’s average price target is $236.80, which implies 54.4% upside.
FellowNeko / Shutterstock.com
Strategy Inc. started as enterprise analytics software. Today it is the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) treasury, holding 846,000 bitcoin. Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer repeated a Buy rating and a $435 target, implying 183.6% upside.
Bitcoin’s Slide Pulled Strategy Inc. Down 53% in a Year
Bitcoin’s decline drove the damage. Strategy Inc. lost 53.3% over the past year. Bitcoin fell 32.53% over the same period. With a beta of 3.571, the stock amplifies every move in the coin.
Fair value accounting turned that decline into large paper losses. Over the last three reported quarters, unrealized losses came to $17.44 billion, $14.46 billion and $8.32 billion. Second-quarter EPS of -$24.45 badly missed the $3.07 consensus. At-the-market offerings brought in $8.41 billion, and the firm paid $400.7 million in preferred dividends.
Benchmark’s $435 Call Depends on BTC Yield and a NAV Premium
Palmer’s thesis rests on three elements: BTC Yield (bitcoin held per diluted share as the company issues equity and debt to buy more coin), a lasting premium to net asset value, and a software business generating recurring revenue.
——
Free Report, Just Released
Why Didn’t MSTR Make The Top 10 List?
24/7 Wall St has helped investors make money for over two decades, and our top analysts just finished ranking the definitive Top 10 Stocks To Buy Now. Not the ten biggest companies. Not the ten everyone is arguing about. The ten best stocks to buy right now.
And MSTR didn’t make the cut!
The report is free, and you can see why we think each stock is a top investment today.
Management’s latest figures back parts of the thesis. Subscription revenue grew to $62.86 million from $40.82 million, and the company is targeting a 4.5% BTC Yield this year. CEO Phong Le said the company “reduced our convertible debt by 18% to $6.7 billion”. Strategy Inc. also has a $3.75 billion USD Reserve covering more than 2.1 years of obligations.
Analysts are nearly unanimous. 2 rate the stock Strong Buy, 13 rate it Buy, 1 rates it Hold and none rate it Sell. Their earnings estimates are shakier. The fiscal 2026 EPS average fell from 31.0171 to -21.9385 over 90 days, though fiscal 2027 picked up three up revisions in the past month.
Michael Saylor said on the fourth-quarter call, “Our objective is to double your Bitcoin per share over seven years.” The NAV premium is the weakest leg. If it contracts, every share sale buys less bitcoin per share.
Coinbase and MARA Sank With Strategy Inc. While Riot Held Up
Strategy Inc. had plenty of company. Most of the crypto group sold off together.
Coinbase Global (NASDAQ:COIN) fell 52.51% over the year. Trading at $178.45 versus a $208.73 target, it offers only 17.0% upside. Its ratings are more divided, with 12 Holds and 2 Sell ratings.
MARA Holdings (NASDAQ:MARA) dropped 48.84%. At $10.36 against an $18.69 target, it offers 80.4% upside. Analysts are split across 8 bullish, 4 Hold and 1 Sell ratings.
Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT) is the outlier, down just 13.65% over the year and up 46.33% year to date. Trading at $18.54 versus a $31.54 target, analysts see 70.1% upside.
Strategy Inc. Is Flat This Year as the S&P 500 Gains 13.98%
At $153.37, Strategy Inc. trades well below the $236.80 consensus target from 16 analysts, leaving 54.4% implied upside. Shares are up 0.93% so far this year, and the S&P 500 has gained 13.98%. Over one year, the stock lost 53.3% while the index rose 16.16%.
Shares rose 7.4% over the past month as Bitcoin climbed 28.33% over 60 days, though the stock dropped 6.79% last session.
I Lean Bullish, With the Consensus Target as My Anchor
The bull case for Strategy Inc. improves if Bitcoin’s rebound holds and the company keeps adding bitcoin per share without heavy dilution. Rising coin prices would lift reported earnings, the NAV premium could rebuild, and $236.80 looks reachable. The bear case takes over if Bitcoin rolls over. Preferred dividends, $6.7 billion of convertible debt and constant share issue would weigh on common shareholders with no earnings buffer.
I lean cautiously bullish. Bitcoin is down 4.89% this year while the stock is roughly flat, suggesting much of the de-rating is priced in. Benchmark’s $435 target needs a lasting premium and a strong Bitcoin rally. I treat the consensus target as realistic upside and the 183.6% call as best case. Riding a crypto-proxy like this is fine as long as you plan the exit, which is the whole point of our free bubble survivor’s handbook.
Got $1,000? Before You Buy MSTR, Read This
If you have cash sitting in your account right now, give this two minutes. After more than two decades of helping investors beat the market, our top analysts at 24/7 Wall St. put together a definitive report on the Top 10 Stocks To Buy Today. And MSTR wasn’t one of them.
They combed the entire market. It’s not 10 ideas, not 10 stocks everyone is talking about, it’s what their research points to as the 10 best stocks to buy right now, and it’s free. Read more here and see which stocks made the list –>>
