SanDisk’s 599% gain leads the group, with 8x forward earnings and $93.9B in multi-year contracts suggesting the fundamentals haven’t fully caught up to the stock.
Moderna’s melanoma vaccine trial with Merck hit a landmark result, but the stock trades above analyst targets on a company still posting hundreds of millions in losses.
Dell’s record $95B AI server backlog extends revenue visibility into next year, but a 47% free cash flow drop and 30x valuation limit further upside.
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Through Oct. 7, the S&P 500 has returned 13.75% year to date. That is a solid year by historical standards. Three stocks have gone far past it, with gains measured in the hundreds of percent over the same window. The harder question for investors is whether any of these runs still has room, or whether the good news is already in the price.
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To rank them, we used four tests: year-to-date return against the index, earnings quality (profits and earnings beats), forward visibility (backlog, contracts and guidance), and valuation relative to what the business is expected to earn. Counting down from #3, we cover Moderna(NASDAQ:MRNA), Dell Technologies(NYSE:DELL) and SanDisk(NASDAQ:SNDK).
#3 Moderna: A Cancer Vaccine Win Sparked a Biotech Rerating
Moderna has returned nearly 537% this year, rising from $29.49 to $196.48. The catalyst was cancer treatment. Moderna said its Phase 3 intismeran melanoma study with Merck(NYSE:MRK) produced the first statistically significant and clinically meaningful adjuvant benefit of its kind. Detailed data was set for an ESMO presentation, and the stock gained 28.79% over the past month.
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The operating business has not caught up. Second-quarter revenue was $145 million, +2.1% YoY, and the net loss came to $782 million. Management guides to up to 10% revenue growth for 2026. The shares now trade well above the average analyst target of $120.67, and they fell 7.75% in the latest session. The pipeline win is real. The valuation already assumes it turns into commercial revenue.
#2 Dell Technologies: A $95 Billion AI Backlog Sets Up Next Year
Dell has returned more than 353% year to date, and AI servers explain the move. In its fiscal second quarter, non-GAAP EPS of $7.04 beat the $4.90 estimate, and revenue rose 57.8% to $46.97 billion. Management said the company “booked a record $60.9 billion in orders, recognized a record $16.4 billion in revenue and exited the quarter with a record $95 billion backlog.”
Full-year guidance now calls for $192 billion in revenue and non-GAAP EPS of $25.50. The weak spots are margins and cash. Free cash flow fell 47% to $986 million, and management described the company as “supply constrained.” At roughly 30x earnings, the stock is fully valued. Even so, the backlog gives Dell revenue visibility well into next year, and the stock rose 8.44% over the past month. All of that server demand still has to be powered, cooled and connected by somebody, and we covered seven of those suppliers in a free AI infrastructure report.
#1 SanDisk: NAND Became Core AI Infrastructure
SanDisk leads the group with a nearly 515% return, climbing from $237.38 to $1,692.42. AI inference drove demand for flash storage, and the fiscal fourth quarter showed the result. Non-GAAP EPS of $39.25 beat the $33.28 estimate, revenue rose 371.6%, and gross margin reached 84.6%.
Visibility is what sets apart SanDisk from a typical memory cycle. Its multi-year customer agreements carry a minimum of $93.9 billion in expected revenue, and management now cites “over four years of visibility.” First-quarter guidance calls for EPS of $44 to $46. The stock trades at 23x trailing earnings and just 8x forward earnings, against an average analyst target of $2,136.54. The main risks are memory-price cycles and its Kioxia reliance. Shares are down 2.62% over the past month, which leaves room if pricing holds.
Which Run Still Has Room? Which Looks Finished?
Against a 13.75% index return, all three cleared the bar by a wide margin. Their expectations now split. SanDisk still has the most room. Signed revenue, guidance pointing to higher earnings and a single-digit forward multiple mean the fundamentals are still ahead of the stock. If NAND pricing breaks, the contract floors limit how much earnings can fall.
Dell is a steady second. Its $95 billion backlog supports more upside, but margin pressure caps how far the multiple can expand. Moderna looks finished for now. It is trading above analyst targets on a single trial result while still losing money, so the stock needs approvals and new revenue to support its price. In the coming months, keep an eye on SanDisk’s contract pricing, Dell’s free cash flow and the full ESMO data for Moderna.
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