Rivian Raised Guidance to 67,000-70,000 Deliveries. Here’s the Q4 Number the R2 Ramp Must Hit — and What the Stock Does if It Doesn’t.

Key Points

Rivian (NASDAQ: RIVN) posted its third-quarter earnings on Oct. 29. Its revenue grew 38% year over year to $2.16 billion, beating analysts’ estimates by $160 million. It narrowed its adjusted net loss to $0.48 per share from $0.65, beating the consensus estimate by $0.17.

Rivian’s total deliveries rose 46% year over year to a record 19,248 vehicles in the third quarter, boosting its year-to-date deliveries to 41,804 vehicles. It also raised its full-year delivery guidance from 65,000-70,000 vehicles to 67,000-70,000 vehicles.

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Image source: Rivian.

That means it will need to deliver roughly 25,000 to 28,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter. Let’s see how Rivian plans to hit that target — and what will happen to its stock if it misses.

What happened to Rivian over the past few years?

When Rivian went public in late 2021, it only produced three electric vehicles: the R1T pickup, R1S SUV, and custom electric delivery vans (EDVs) for Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN). It began producing EDVs for other customers after ending its exclusivity agreement with Amazon in 2023, and it launched its third consumer vehicle, the R2 SUV, in June 2026.

Data source: Rivian.

Rivian’s deliveries surged in 2023, but declined over the following two years as it grappled with supply chain constraints, rising costs, and intense competition. To stabilize its business, Rivian unveiled the R2 — an SUV that would cost $30,000-$40,000 less than the R1 and R1S — to expand its total addressable market and widen its moat. Even though the R2 had a lower price tag, it could be sold at higher margins than the R1T and R1S because it used fewer electronic control units, had simpler wiring, larger castings, and an upgraded battery.

Will the R2 drive Rivian past its full-year goal?

Rivian hasn’t disclosed its exact number of R2 deliveries yet, but its founder and CEO, RJ Scaringe, said the R2 was its “best-selling vehicle by volume in the third quarter.” Most analysts believe Rivian has delivered at least 10,000 R2s since its launch in June.

As of this writing, Rivian is only delivering its top-tier R2 Performance (Launch Package) vehicle, which starts at $57,990. It plans to launch the cheaper R2 Premium AWD for $53,990 in late 2026 or early 2027, followed by the R2 Standard RWD (Long Range) for $48,490 in early 2027, and the R2 Standard (Base) for $45,000 in late 2027.

That would make the R2 a direct competitor for Tesla‘s (NASDAQ: TSLA) Model Y, which costs between $44,990 (Long Range RWD) and $54,990 (Performance AWD). The persistent public backlash against Elon Musk over his political views could drive more new drivers and former Tesla owners to Rivian as it finally rolls out more affordable EVs.

Rivian is counting on the R2 to drive its annual deliveries to 67,000-70,000, but two challenges could prevent it from achieving that goal. First, persistent inflation and rising interest rates could throttle its sales of new EVs. Second, some of Rivian’s potential customers could be waiting for its cheaper trims to hit the market next year.

What will happen to Rivian’s stock if it misses its target?

At $13 per share, Rivian already trades 83% below its IPO price of $78. With an enterprise value of $20.5 billion, it trades at less than three times this year’s sales. Tesla, with an enterprise value of $1.56 trillion, trades at 14.5 times this year’s sales.

That low valuation should limit Rivian’s downside potential, even if it fails to deliver more than 25,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter. But if it hits or beats that target, its stock could skyrocket as it’s revalued as a high-growth EV stock again.

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Leo Sun has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.