Who most deserves the Ballon d’Or? Whittling down the 30-man short list

For most of the past 15 years, there was really no point in campaigning for the men’s Ballon d’Or — it was going to the more obnoxiously successful of two men, Lionel Messi (eight-time winner) or Cristiano Ronaldo (five). Their personal — and sometimes club — rivalry defined the sport, to the point where even a rising star like Kylian Mbappé openly admitted he wasn’t as good as them.

“It’s not only me who knows that,” he told writer Simon Kuper in “The Barcelona Complex.” “Everyone knows it. If you tell yourself that you’ll do better than them, it’s beyond ego or determination — it’s lack of awareness. Those players are incomparable. They have broken all laws of statistics.”

“I can’t top them” probably isn’t the healthiest thing in the world for a megastar to tell himself, but with Messi and Ronaldo finally having aged out of the competition — Ronaldo hasn’t finished in the top three of the voting in the 2020s, and Messi’s final win came in 2023 — now’s the time to pounce.

Mbappé wants it. Lamine Yamal has said he wants it. Harry Kane thinks winning it would be “amazing.” They’re the three betting favorites for the award — Kane’s and Yamal’s odds are both at +100 after a recent rise from Yamal, while Mbappé is at a longer +1000 — but who actually deserves it?

After some late PR campaigns from players and clubs, voting for the award closed on Monday. It will go to the player who achieved the most between the beginning of the 2025-26 club season and the end of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Thirty players were officially nominated, but based on who has won the award in the past, we can narrow the field pretty quickly.

– Ogden: Does Man City’s guilty verdict impact Pep Guardiola’s legacy?
– Marcotti: Hard to see how City recover from extraordinary guilty verdict
– Lindop: Liverpool can’t afford to be without Isak, Gakpo in October

Eliminate anyone who played for Real Madrid last season

Eliminated: Jude Bellingham, Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior

I’m sorry, but we have to start here. The three players above are all dynamite, and two have come pretty close to winning the award already — Mbappé was 192 points behind Messi in 2023, and Vinícius was only 41 points behind Rodri in 2024.

Mbappé is indeed No. 3 in the betting odds, and his scorpionlike quick strike capabilities might make him the most terrifying player in the world. At any point, it feels as if you could be about eight seconds from a Mbappé goal. He’s great.

He has also been part of a terribly disappointing club team for two straight years. Since Mbappé joined Real Madrid, the only trophies they’ve won were the UEFA Super Cup and the FIFA Intercontinental Cup in 2024, trophies tied to accomplishments of the team before his arrival.

Real Madrid have finished behind Barcelona in both of Mbappé’s seasons, and after winning the UEFA Champions League in the season before his arrival, they haven’t made it past the quarterfinals with him. The Ballon d’Or isn’t for club underachievers.

Mbappé is a delicious goal scorer, but his inability to even pretend to contribute in defense has held the team back significantly, especially combined with Vinícius’ own refusal to do so. Mbappé did, however, have a fantastic World Cup, which is why he’s No. 3 on the list — he won the Golden Boot with 10 goals and became the competition’s all-time leading scorer. But even there, his team lost to Yamal’s Spain and Kane’s England.

It would feel awfully strange if Mbappé retired without a Ballon d’Or, but he didn’t earn it in 2025-26, nor did anyone else on a trophy-less Real Madrid team.

That cuts the list to 27 guys.

play

Kirkland: Mbappé is in Ballon d’Or campaign mode amidst criticism

Actually, eliminate anyone who didn’t win a trophy

Eliminated: Bruno Fernandes, Sadio Mané, Julián Quiñones

Technically, players have taken the Ballon d’Or after a trophy-less campaign, but it’s rare. Kevin Keegan did it in 1978, back when it was called the “France Football European Footballer of the Year”; Figo did it in 2000 after leading Portugal to the Euro 2000 semis (and making a seismic move from Barcelona to Real Madrid that summer); and Ronaldo did it after scoring 55 goals in 2013. That’s it. That’s the list.

We watched Mané win a trophy back in the winter, when Senegal upset Morocco in a contentious Africa Cup of Nations final, but they were stripped of the award in March, so it was technically a trophy-free campaign for him. And though Quiñones scored four goals for Mexico at the World Cup (and 33 for Al Qadsiah in the Saudi Pro League) and Fernandes set a Premier League assists record, the bar for accomplishments in a World Cup year is too high. You need a trophy.

Now we’re down to 24.

If you won only one trophy, you had better be an attacker

Eliminated: Marc Cucurella, Gabriel Magalhães, Declan Rice, William Saliba

Sorry, I don’t make the rules. (I mean, I am kind of making the rules here, but they’re based on history.) The one-trophy guys tend to be goal scorers — Messi in 2019, the original Ronaldo in 2002, Roberto Baggio in 1993, Jean-Pierre Papin in 1990, Ruud Gullit in 1987, Michel Platini in 1983, Karl-Heinz Rumenigge in 1981, Keegan in 1979.

Arsenal won the Premier League with a fantastic core of midfielders such as Rice and defenders such as Gabriel and Saliba, and Cucurella, a fullback, was nearly error-free during Spain’s World Cup run. But none of these guys score much.

That gets them eliminated, and it gets us down to 20 contenders.

play

De La Fuente: I hope the Ballon d’Or winner is a Spaniard

When in doubt, eliminate anyone who had a disappointing World Cup (or didn’t play in it)

Eliminated: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Marquinhos, Nuno Mendes, João Neves, Willian Pacho, Vitinha

In a World Cup year, the Ballon d’Or becomes extremely World Cup-centric. It’s why Mbappé still has a prayer this year, and it’s a main reason why Messi won in 2023 (after Argentina won 2022’s winter World Cup), why Luka Modric won in 2018 (after Croatia‘s run to the final), why Manuel Neuer finished third in 2014 (after Germany‘s win), why Andres Iniesta and Xavi Hernandez finished second and third in 2010 (after Spain’s win), why Fabio Cannavaro won in 2006 (after Italy‘s win), and on and on.

Unfortunately for a number of Paris Saint-Germain stars, a lack of World Cup success gets them eliminated. World Cup expansion means Georgia‘s Kvaratskhelia might have hope of playing there one day, but he didn’t this summer, while Marquinhos was part of a disappointing Brazilian squad, Pacho’s Ecuador bowed out in the round of 32, and Mendes, Neves and Vitinha were all part of a Portugal team that was supposed to contend and didn’t. (I guess you could say that Ronaldo got four of his Portuguese teammates eliminated from this competition, too.)

This knocks our list all the way down to 14 remaining players.

You have to be the best player on your club team (or have a case that you are)

Eliminated: Luis Díaz, Pau Cubarsí, Fabián Ruiz, Ferran Torres, Dayot Upamecano

It seems fair, right? Cubarsí is a ridiculously sound center back, especially for a 19-year-old, and Upamecano is a major key to Bayern Munich‘s high-wire attacking style. Díaz proved his incredible “glue guy” characteristics when he left Liverpool for Bayern and the former fell apart, while the latter achieved a new level of attacking prowess. But few would make the case that these guys are better than Barça’s Yamal or Raphinha, or Bayern’s Kane or Michael Olise.

Torres, meanwhile, scored the World Cup-winning goal, but Barça let him leave for PSG. So, let’s cross these five off our list. Now we’re down to nine.

You should be among the top 3 in your position

Eliminated: Ousmane Dembélé, Lautaro Martínez, Lionel Messi

The final nine are all extremely accomplished and talented, so we have to raise the bar even higher. Using the summer’s FC 100 voting, we can eliminate Martínez (No. 6 center forward), Messi (No. 5 wide forward) and Dembélé (No. 4 center forward). All three had excellent seasons and/or World Cup campaigns, but others have just been a little bit better in 2025-26. That gets us down to six.

play

Beckham: Messi should win the Ballon D’Or

Has anyone in your position ever won the Ballon d’Or?

Eliminated: Achraf Hakimi

Sometimes a non-attacker can transcend the counting stats and win the award. Rodri did, after all, in 2024 following the success of both Spain and Manchester City, and Modric won in 2018 after combining major club success (Real Madrid) with a World Cup run (Croatia). Cannavaro was among the best defenders of the 2000s and rode a World Cup title to victory over Italian teammate Gianluigi Buffon (also not a forward, obviously) in 2006. But no fullback has yet taken the award.

That’s apparently a bridge too far. The closest thing was when a sweeper such as Matthias Sammer (1996) or Franz Beckenbauer (1972 and 1976) did the deed, but sweepers still aren’t fullbacks, and that was three and five decades ago. Hakimi is the best fullback in the world and has been for a while, but he’s not getting the nod.

We’re down to five.

How was your club season?

Eliminated: Rodri

Watching Rodri in person at the World Cup was an incredible experience. He saw every potential counterattack against Spain developing 10 seconds in advance and was always in place to intercept the ball before it could start moving in the other direction. He was a timepiece, always keeping Spain from moving too slowly or too quickly. He probably benefited a bit from the slower pace of international play, but he was note-perfect during the tournament and deserved the Golden Ball award.

However, that all came on the heels of a club season in which he started only 17 league games for Manchester City while still trying to return to full form after his 2024 knee injury. The only reason he’s on the list is because of the World Cup, and the four remaining guys on this list combined club success with great World Cup performances.

play

The ‘ESPN FC’ crew debates Rodri vs. Messi for World Cup’s best player

Your finalists

This process of elimination has left us with four potential winners, listed alphabetically:

Erling Haaland, 26, Manchester City/Norway

Relevant stats (club and country): 64 matches (2.19 PPG), 5,146 minutes, 58 goals, 11 assists from 45 chances created, World Cup quarterfinal, two trophies (FA Cup, Carabao Cup)

Harry Kane, 33, Bayern Munich/England

Relevant stats: 65 matches (2.60 PPG), 5,220 minutes, 73 goals, eight assists from 80 chances created, World Cup third place, three trophies (Bundesliga, German Cup, German Supercup)

Michael Olise, 24, Bayern Munich/France

Relevant stats: 69 matches (2.54 PPG), 5,314 minutes, 27 goals, 34 assists from 170 chances created, World Cup fourth place, three trophies (Bundesliga, German Cup, German Supercup)

Lamine Yamal, 19, Barcelona/Spain

Relevant stats: 57 matches (2.46 PPG), 4,574 minutes, 25 goals, 20 assists from 131 chances created, World Cup champion, three trophies (World Cup, LaLiga, Spanish Supercopa)

Actually, listing each player’s relevant stats gives me an opportunity to address one of this year’s primary Ballon d’Or controversies: the non-inclusion of Raphinha, Yamal’s Barça teammate — and maybe the hottest player in the world right now — on the 30-man short list. Thirty players is a lot, and Raphinha had an obvious case, but in the time frame around which the award is based, he played only 40 matches and scored 21 goals with eight assists. He battled injuries and form, he barely played for Brazil at the World Cup (130 minutes, zero goals and assists), and he didn’t really catch fire until the time frame ended. Consider him an early front-runner for 2027 (though I’ve already made my prediction in that race).

play

Hislop: Right now Raphinha is the world’s best player

The betting odds tell us that two of these four players are far more likely to win than the other two, but all four have solid cases.

The case for Haaland

Haaland enjoyed another strong club season, scoring 38 goals with nine assists in all competitions. That almost sounds underwhelming by his standards, but it is still fantastic for someone in the best league in the club universe. Haaland might have enjoyed himself more than anyone else at the World Cup. His seven goals were the most by a World Cup debutant since 1974 (Poland‘s Grzegorz Lato), and he led Norway to its best-ever finish, a quarterfinal run that included a win over Brazil. (Naturally, he scored both of Norway’s goals in that match.)

Haaland was also a bit of a pop culture phenomenon, buying cowboy hats, eating pastrami sandwiches and basically winning over every casual American sports fan. The World Cup belonged to him as much as anyone, and that usually earns you lots of Ballon d’Or votes. His case is likely dinged by both Manchester City’s second-place finish to Arsenal in the Premier League and the dark clouds of the City scandal (which had nothing to do with him). But I was very surprised to see his odds for the award at only +4000, tied for eighth with Cubarsí, Dembélé, Olise and Bellingham. He’d be in my top five at worst.

The case for Olise

For my money, Olise is the best player in the world at the moment. That doesn’t automatically mean he should win, and it’s partially because of how he has started this new season. He already has eight goals and three assists in seven matches for Bayern, and when France needed a spark against Belgium this week in the UEFA Nations League, guess who sprang off the bench and immediately made the difference? But I was already starting to believe in his superiority last season.

Olise scored 22 goals with 26 assists in all competitions — six to Kane — for Bayern in 2025-26, a season in which he established himself as the best creator in the world. His touch and vision are sublime, and when it’s time for him to do it himself, he’s more than OK with doing that.

As with Haaland, Olise’s odds are +4000, which is to say he’s obviously not going to win it. But he’d be in my top three. He led the World Cup in assists with seven (no one else had more than four), and really, only a finishing slump held him back: He attempted 20 shots worth 2.5 xG, but none went in the net. But that’s fine. For those of us in the Olise Is the Best in the World club, he can remain our little secret for a little while longer.

play

Leboeuf: Olise showed his talent vs. Belgium

The case for Yamal

This is an award for 2025-26, but the case for Yamal almost has to start with Spain’s current 40-match (and more than four-year) unbeaten streak. It correlates almost perfectly with the emergence of Yamal. He played 18 minutes in Spain’s last defeat — a 1-0 friendly loss to Colombia in March 2024 and his fifth appearance for Spain as a 16-year-old — but during this unbeaten streak, he has started 28 of 40 matches. In this span, he’s fourth on the team in minutes (2,305), third in goals (eight), second in shots on goal (36), progressive carries (320) and completed crosses (24) and first in assists (12), chances created (55), line-breaking passes received (297), ground duels won (184) and fouls suffered (44). Hell, he is also second in successful tackles (52) and third in ball recoveries (117).

Yamal wasn’t even at full strength during the World Cup, having rushed back from injury, but he still played 615 of 750 minutes, and his mere presence out wide stretched and stressed defenses in ways that opened up opportunities for others. He was content playing more of a supporting role, refused to force the issue and lifted his second major international trophy before his 20th birthday.

Yamal has been the most valuable player on both the most successful international team of the 2020s and the team that has won the last two LaLiga crowns. And his magnetic personality, which comes through in virtually any interview, certainly doesn’t hurt his Ballon d’Or cause. Putting together a career that rivals Messi’s or Ronaldo’s will take a level of longevity that we don’t yet know he has, but at worst he’s the second-most successful teenager ever behind Pele (who not only won a World Cup but also had two 50-goal campaigns).

The case for Kane

I’m finishing this list with Kane because, honestly, his is the easiest case to make. Yamal seems to be picking up momentum in the race, at least if betting odds are to be believed (and they frequently are), and if he wins it will be hard to say it was unjust. But look again at the stats above. Kane played eight more matches and over 600 more minutes than Yamal — which is to say, he stayed healthier than a player 14 years his junior — and he produced 81 combined goals and assists, a full 36 more than Yamal.

Does he play for one of the two most talented and prolific attacks in the world? Obviously. But so does Yamal!

Kane is England’s all-time leading goal scorer and has the second-most goals in the history of the Premier League, but he achieved a new level of prowess in his 16th professional season. He scored over 60 club goals in all competitions for the first time, then he scored six goals in seven matches while leading England to the World Cup semifinals for the second time.

You could easily say that, when you’re in doubt regarding whom to vote for, you should choose the older player who might not get another chance. But you don’t even need to use that as a tiebreaker for Kane against Yamal because I don’t think it’s tied. He won nearly as much as Yamal at the World Cup, won every domestic trophy with Bayern and posted far superior statistics.

If I had a guess, I’d say Yamal wins at this point because of the late PR push. If I had a vote, however, I’d go with Kane.