USD/CHF’s fall from 0.8394 extended to 0.8190 last week but recovered. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Below 0.8190 will target 38.2% retracement of 0.7603 to 0.8394 at 0.8092. On the upside, above 0.8629 minor resistance will turn intraday bias back to the upside for stronger rebound.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.7603 should at least be reversing the medium term trend. Focus is on 0.8332 support turned resistance (2023 low) for confirmation. Firm break there will target 61.8% retracement of 0.9200 (2025 high) to 0.7603 at 0.8590. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.7948 support holds.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It’s uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 M EMA (now at 0.8571) holds.
