Quick overview
- Glencore shares rose 2.9% to near R130, driven by a UBS buy rating and expanding opportunities in copper and critical minerals.
- The company reported strong first-half results with an 86% increase in adjusted EBITDA and a return to profitability, highlighting its diversified operations.
- Glencore’s recent Australian listing aims to attract more institutional investors and enhance access to capital, particularly for its copper expansion plans.
- The company has also partnered in a U.S. initiative to strengthen critical mineral supply chains, with significant investment potential.
Glencore shares gained 2.9% on Friday, approaching R130 as the Australian listing, a UBS buy rating and expanding copper and critical-minerals opportunities strengthen investor interest.
Glencore Shares Rebound Toward R130
Glencore (JSE: GLN) shares regained momentum on Friday, rising 2.90% to close near R130 despite weakness across much of the JSE Top 40. The rebound followed a two-day retreat and puts the mining and commodities group back in focus as investors assess its growth prospects and access to international capital.
The stock previously climbed toward R138 in September after Glencore delivered strong first-half 2026 results. Adjusted EBITDA surged 86% to $10.1 billion, while revenue increased 49% to $174.43 billion. The company also swung from a $655 million loss a year earlier to a $4.4 billion profit.
The results reflected stronger commodity prices and favourable trading conditions, highlighting the contribution of Glencore’s diversified mining and marketing operations during periods of market volatility.
UBS Initiates Coverage With Buy Rating
UBS initiated coverage of Glencore’s Australian-listed shares with a buy rating and a price target of A$13.40. Analyst Lachlan Shaw highlighted the company’s marketing performance and favourable commodity-price exposure as important factors supporting the assessment.
The rating aligns with UBS’s existing coverage of Glencore’s London listing. The bank also identified several potential catalysts over the next 12 to 24 months, including progress on copper expansion projects, asset disposals and increased shareholder returns during the second half of 2026 and into 2027.
Potential disposals involving assets such as Orion, the Democratic Republic of Congo operations, Kazzinc and Bunge shares could help simplify the portfolio and release capital. However, UBS also flagged risks from commodity-price fluctuations, permitting approvals and marketing performance.
Australian Listing Expands Investor Access
Glencore began trading on the Australian Securities Exchange on October 14 under the ticker GLC through CHESS Depositary Interests, each representing one London-listed share. The secondary listing raises no new capital but provides Australian investors with more direct access to the company.
The move is particularly relevant given Australia’s substantial retirement savings market, with pension assets estimated at A$4.4 trillion. Glencore hopes to attract a broader institutional investor base as it pursues expansion opportunities, particularly in copper.
Chief executive Gary Nagle announced the plan in August, citing Australia’s deep pool of long-term investment capital. The listing also follows the collapse of merger discussions with Rio Tinto earlier in 2026, although Glencore’s immediate strategy remains focused on its existing operations and growth pipeline.
Critical Minerals Provide Another Growth Opportunity
Glencore has also been selected alongside Mercuria as a founding partner in the U.S. government’s VaultCo initiative, which aims to strengthen critical-mineral supply chains in Latin America.
Project Vault is designed to build strategic inventories of critical minerals and rare earths while reducing dependence on China. The broader initiative could involve up to $12 billion in investment and financing across the supply chain. Glencore has additionally received a $500 million commitment from the U.S. Export-Import Bank to support its involvement in critical-minerals projects.
The Refreshing of the Powerful Uptrend Seems Complete
Glencore’s share price has been trending higher since April 2025, rebounding from around R53 and more than doubling in 14 months, sending BLNJ share price above R136 in June and further to R138 in early September, placing it firmly to the new all-time high but we saw a pullback to R115. However the 200 daily SMA in purple held as support and we have seen a rebound toward new highs.
GLNJ Chart Daily – The 200 SMA Held as Support
Energy Trading Drives Earnings
Glencore’s marketing division delivered one of the strongest improvements in the first half. Marketing adjusted EBIT more than doubled to $3.3 billion, while the industrial business increased adjusted EBITDA by 72% to $6.5 billion.
Energy trading was particularly strong, with EBIT surging to $2.66 billion from just $40 million a year earlier. Oil, LNG and shipping-market volatility created significant trading opportunities as supply conditions shifted.
Crude and fuel trading volumes also increased approximately 24% to around 5.2 million barrels per day.
The results demonstrate how periods of market volatility can become a significant earnings driver for Glencore’s trading operations.
Strong Cash Flow Supports Returns
Glencore reduced net debt by approximately $1 billion to $10.2 billion, despite spending around $4 billion on capital expenditure.
The company also declared another $1 billion special distribution and announced a new $500 million share buyback, taking total announced shareholder returns for 2026 to approximately $3.5 billion.
Full-Year Outlook Remains Strong
Based on current commodity prices and expected second-half volumes, Glencore estimates illustrative full-year adjusted EBITDA could reach approximately $19.7 billion.
The outlook remains dependent on commodity prices and trading conditions, however. The key question is whether exceptionally strong energy-trading profits can be sustained or whether they reflect unusually favorable market volatility.
For now, the planned October 14 ASX listing, strong earnings and shareholder returns are providing additional catalysts as Glencore stock attempts to recover from its recent retreat.
Technical Outlook: Can Glencore Revisit R138?
Glencore’s rebound toward R130 puts the September high near R138 back in focus. A sustained move higher could open the way for another attempt at that resistance zone, particularly if commodity prices remain supportive.
However, the stock must maintain its recovery after the recent pullback. Commodity volatility, execution risks and uncertainty around disposals remain important considerations. For now, the Australian listing and UBS endorsement provide fresh catalysts, but further upside will depend on sustained earnings strength and progress across Glencore’s strategic priorities.
Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank’s local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
