Anthropic’s IPO could start trading as soon as Nov. 16 — here’s the road from filing to first trade

Anthropic’s (ANTH.PVT) long-awaited stock market debut could be just weeks away.

The artificial intelligence startup publicly filed for its initial public offering on Monday, releasing its S-1 — the prospectus a company must file with the Securities and Exchange Commission before selling stock to the public. That started a countdown that could end in one of the largest IPOs in history as soon as mid-November.

The company hasn’t announced a date for its first day of trading, but it’s aiming to debut the week of Nov. 16, according to reports from the Wall Street Journal and Reuters.

Before its stock can begin trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker ANT, Anthropic and its Wall Street bankers have to get through an investor roadshow, set a price, and receive a final green light from regulators.

Under SEC rules, the earliest Anthropic could start trading is Monday, Nov. 16, according to Yahoo Finance calculations. At the pace SpaceX (SPCX) set in June — when it went from public filing to first trade in 23 days — Anthropic would debut on Wednesday, Nov. 18.

A timeline comparing SpaceX's IPO with two possible paths for Anthropic. SpaceX filed publicly May 20 and started trading June 12. On the fastest path SEC rules allow, Anthropic would start trading Nov. 16. At SpaceX's pace, it would start Nov. 18, both before Thanksgiving on Nov. 26.
SEC, IFR, Yahoo Finance

Companies that let the SEC review a draft of their IPO paperwork in private must make it public at least 15 calendar days before starting their formal roadshow — the meetings where bankers pitch the stock to big investors and take orders. With Anthropic’s filing public on Oct. 26, marketing could begin as soon as Nov. 10.

After that, the fastest path runs into a holiday. The SEC is closed for Veterans Day on Nov. 11, and its rules require two business days’ notice before the agency declares a filing effective. That makes Friday, Nov. 13, the earliest Anthropic could set its price — a day bankers rarely use, since the stock wouldn’t start trading until Monday, leaving buyers to wait out the weekend.

SpaceX started its roadshow the first day it could and priced its stock a week later.

The maker of Claude has yet to disclose how many shares it plans to sell or the price range for its offering.

Those details typically appear in an updated filing before the roadshow begins. The final price is usually set after investors have indicated their demand, the night before the stock starts trading.

Everything. Market volatility, particularly in comparable stocks already trading, and any outstanding regulatory issues could shift the timetable. The company also hasn’t said how long its roadshow will last.

With the US midterm elections on Nov. 3 and Thanksgiving on Nov. 26, Anthropic and its bankers have a narrow window. On SpaceX’s timetable, they’d have about a week to spare.

History says patience pays. Of more than 9,000 IPOs from 1975 to 2021, 60% were flat or lower three years after their first day’s closing price, according to data from University of Florida professor Jay Ritter that Yahoo Finance analyzed before SpaceX’s debut.

Anthropic could get the same early boost SpaceX did from index funds forced to buy the stock. But that buying may have come at a price for SpaceX, which fell 15% in its first week in the Nasdaq-100.

Internal AI tools helped research and create the chart for this post. Humans reviewed, edited, and fact-checked this post before publication.

Follow David Hollerith on X @DsHollers.

Follow Jared Blikre on X @SPYJared or email him at jaredblikre@yahooinc.com.



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