DEMOCRATS NEED a net gain of four Senate seats to take control of the upper chamber of Congress. Now, with election day looming on November 3rd, a state crucial to that effort is descending into chaos. Republicans have asserted for months that Dan J. Sullivan, a retired teacher living in a small fishing village, launched a Senate campaign to confuse voters and siphon votes from Dan S. Sullivan, the Republican incumbent. Mr Sullivan, the retiree, previously denied such devious aims. But on October 28th the New York Times reported that Democratic campaign operatives worked quietly to recruit candidates, including Mr Sullivan, who might hurt the sitting senator’s chance of re-election.
On November 1st a federal judge rejected an attempt by the Department of Justice (DoJ) to prevent the certification of Alaska’s election should Mr Sullivan, the incumbent, lose. Mary Peltola, the Democratic candidate for Senate, denies any personal knowledge of the scheme. However the entire affair is a nightmare for Ms Peltola and her party. Rather than talking about petrol prices or deep-sea trawling in the closing days of the campaign, she is being forced to defend the ethics of her staff. Despite the court order, doubts about the state’s election integrity, advanced by Republicans worried they may lose the seat, could fester for weeks.
Ballot stacking, though ignoble, is neither illegal nor, history suggests, particularly effective. In 2024 a Republican activist in Washington convinced two Bob Fergusons to run as Democrats in the governor’s race against a third Bob Ferguson, who was the state’s attorney general—and is now governor. In June Alaska’s supreme court ruled that Mr Sullivan, the retiree, was indeed an eligible candidate. The state’s election officials have tried to differentiate the Sullivans on the ballot to limit voter confusion. Senator Sullivan is listed as “Sullivan, Dan S. (Registered Republican) Incumbent”. Because Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, Alaskans who intend to pick the incumbent rank can rank both Sullivans ahead of Ms Peltola, to ensure that their votes won’t be wasted.
Donald Trump’s DoJ deemed this insufficient. On October 22nd, before the report from the Times, it filed suit in federal court to block certification of the race if the incumbent loses narrowly. Because elections in America are run by states, not the federal government, Alaska’s election officials argued that “no legal authority” supports federal involvement in its handling of the Dan Sullivans. Judge Sharon Gleason, an appointee of Barack Obama, seemed to agree, and dismissed the government’s case. In an amicus brief, Rick Hasen, an election-law expert at the University of California, Los Angeles, wrote that the Trump administration “proposes a ‘heads we win, tails you lose’ scenario that favors only one outcome.”
Mr Trump, some Alaska Republicans and the DoJ are still using the Times report to cast fresh doubt on the election’s integrity. On Truth Social Mr Trump called the alleged ballot stacking “A FRAUD ON THE AMERICAN PUBLIC”. Mike Dunleavy, Alaska’s outgoing Republican governor, has ordered a state investigation of the matter. As part of its own criminal probe, the DoJ has issued subpoenas to several Democrats allegedly tied to the scheme. None of the litigation, nor the Times’s reporting, has unearthed evidence that Mr Sullivan was bribed to run or that he perjured himself.
Ms Peltola’s appeal to voters rests on her no-nonsense, empathetic persona. An Alaska Native, she grew up fishing on the Kuskokwim River and prefers to call herself an Alaskan rather than a Democrat. When The Economist met voters last month on the Alaskan island of Kodiak, several said they supported the former congresswoman because she was “quite nice” and “honest”. Allegations that Democratic operatives engaged in such chicanery on her behalf may shatter that image.
While accusations, investigations and lawsuits fly, voters are already having their say. As of October 31st, roughly 14% of Alaska’s voters had cast their ballots. However, the double Dan Sullivan saga will not end on election day. The state is slow to count votes, both because some of its communities are so remote and because it accepts mail ballots from overseas voters for 15 days following election day. Its tabulation of ranked-choice votes won’t occur until November 18th; election officials hope to certify results by the 25th.
If Ms Peltola wins, some Republicans will probably cry foul. They are already laying the groundwork for how they might prevent her from being seated. Mr Dunleavy has suggested that the state’s process for certifying the election may need to be “stopped or changed”. The director of the Division of Elections certifies results. But the Republican lieutenant governor, Nancy Dahlstrom, presides over Alaska’s elections. If Mr Dunleavy or Ms Dahlstrom try to interrupt the process, that may yield more lawsuits. Senator Sullivan, for his part, has said he will accept the results of the election. Democrats may win enough races elsewhere that they will not need Alaska to secure control of the Senate. If they don’t, the fate of the Senate majority may be litigated in Alaska into December.
