USD/JPY fell sharply last week but recovered after breaching 156.36 support briefly. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, firm break of firm break of 156.36 will argue that rebound from 152.87 has completed after failing to sustain above 55 D EMA. Deeper fall should then be seen back to 152.87 low. Meanwhile, above 159.02 will target 160.38.
In the bigger picture, price action from 163.97 medium term top is seen as correcting the rise from 139.87. The first leg could have completed at 152.87, ahead of 152.25 structure support. Sustained break above 55 D EMA (now at 158.09) would pave the way back to retest 163.97 high. Nevertheless, strong resistance should be seen there to cap upside. There would likely another falling leg before the pattern completes.
In the long term picture, long term outlook will stay bullish as long as 139.87 support holds, even in case of deep pullback. Up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in favor to resume after current correction from 163.97 completes.
