Renewing Vinicius Junior on an expensive new contract last summer already looks like a serious mistake by Real Madrid — or at least a big missed opportunity.
In late July, when Arsenal made a serious push to sign Vinicius Jr, the Brazilian leaving La Liga for the newly crowned Premier League champions appeared a real possibility.
It never got to the point where the two clubs seriously discussed a potential transfer fee, but a valuation of over €100million (£83.5m; $110m) would have been reasonable for one of the world’s top attacking talents. At that price, many Madrid fans — including those who had regularly whistled him at the Bernabeu last season — would have been happy to sell.
That money could have been used to strengthen other areas, such as central defence and midfield.
When it came to the crunch, however, Vinicius Jr signed a new contract tying him to the Bernabeu until 2032, with club president Florentino Perez approving an improved annual salary of over €22million. This made him one of the highest-paid players in the club’s history.
The hope on all sides at that point was that, with his future sorted, Vinicius Jr, aged 26 and approaching what should be the peak of his career, could make a fresh start at Madrid this season. A productive start to 2026-27, perhaps a flurry of early goals and joyous celebrations at the Bernabeu, could have helped put the problems of recent years behind everyone.
The initial feeling with new coach Jose Mourinho was positive on both sides, despite their issues last season when Mourinho was in charge of Benfica.
Vinicius Jr did score one goal and assist another in Madrid’s first game of the season at the Bernabeu, the 4-1 victory over Real Sociedad in mid-August. But that tap-in from three yards remains his only goal scored in 12 appearances this term (882 minutes across La Liga and Champions League). He has just two further assists, both in relatively straightforward home wins over Malaga and Rayo Vallecano in the first month of the campaign.
Since then, it seems that nothing can go right for Vinicius Jr at Madrid. The clearest example came during early October’s La Liga game at home to Villarreal. He was rotated (or dropped) to the bench by Mourinho after eight games without a goal. But he came on and seemed to have ended that drought with a neatly taken close-range strike.
The celebrations were cut short as VAR had spotted Vinicius Jr pulling the hair of Villarreal midfielder Nathan Saliba in the build-up. The goal was disallowed and he was red-carded instead.
Vinicius’s frustration came through in his response to the official’s decision, and this led to his ban for the incident being doubled from two to four games.
In his absence, Madrid won all four games, including a Clasico at Barcelona. They scored 12 goals and conceded just twice. Meanwhile, summer signing Yan Diomande has settled in exceptionally well in Vinicius Jr’s usual position on the left wing. Diomande, 19, has worked hard for the team and scored a series of superb goals.
Vinicius Jr’s two Champions League appearances during his La Liga ban have not helped his case either. He has looked low on confidence and done little to help the team against relatively low-profile opponents, RB Leipzig and AEK.
Mourinho has done his best. He’s publicly talked Vinicius Jr up and asked the Bernabeu fans to get off his back and start supporting him. But it has not worked at all so far. Even Vinicius Jr’s biggest supporters would find it difficult to argue that he now deserves to start ahead of Diomande on the left.
Mourinho has more recently publicly accepted that, on current form, Vinicius Jr does not merit a place in Madrid’s first-choice line-up. And this is not unique to Mourinho. No Madrid coach — not Carlo Ancelotti, Xabi Alonso, Alvaro Arbeloa or Mourinho, as yet — has come up with a plan to fit the squad’s superstar attackers Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Jr into the same line-up.
Both are fast, direct, right-footed attackers who like to work towards the left of the attack, and neither are consistently diligent defensively.
Mourinho has defended Vinicius publicly (Oscar Del Pozo/AFP via Getty Images)
In the two years since Mbappe’s arrival, Madrid have won zero major trophies. This is their longest barren run in over a decade.
Mbappe has scored 103 goals already during that time (including 17 goals in 16 games this season). Vinicius has notched 22 goals in each of the past two seasons, but his form has been much more patchy.
An obvious solution is to try to raise as much money as possible by selling one of the big stars. That opportunity appeared to be there last summer when Arsenal showed their interest in the Brazilian. But Perez agreed to the pay rise, the player decided to stay, and now both are locked together long term.
A long spell for Vinicius Jr on the Bernabeu bench now would be problematic for everyone. There is no indication of either player or club considering a transfer any time soon, but in the future, last summer may come to be seen as the right moment for a move.
Whatever he was worth in the summer is likely to have dropped since then.
Madrid have historically had issues moving on unwanted big-earners. Over the past decade, big stars such as Gareth Bale, Isco and James Rodriguez have all cost the club millions in wages while their careers stalled. They all found themselves watching games from the sidelines.
How Vinicius Jr would react to such a situation remains to be seen. This is the player who felt he deserved to win the 2024 Ballon d’Or award. He also told Perez that he would not renew while his relationship was strained with head coach Xabi Alonso.
The reaction of the Bernabeu crowd will also be watched closely when Vinicius Jr is available again to play there for the first time in a month, when Celta Vigo visit on November 21.
Things can change quickly in football, of course. Injuries or suspensions could open up new opportunities for Vinicius Jr, or a new tactical tweak by Mourinho may work in his favour. A spectacular goal or decisive performance in a crucial game could provide a boost of confidence which propels him back towards top form.
But the longer the current situation continues, the worse for the player and the club. A change of scene last summer might have been revitalising for Vinicius Jr and provided useful funds for investment elsewhere in the team. That opportunity passed, and may not soon come around again.
