“Just in: China takes over Taiwan,” reads a post on X from November 5, featuring an animated map meant to show the ongoing annexation of the island. “In the past few hours, Chinese aircrafts and marine patrols were closing [sic] monitoring Taiwan and now its more clear and confirmed that any movements to and from Taiwan is now controlled by the Chinese military presence,” it added.
The animated map shows dozens of planes taking off from continental China and flying towards Taiwan, encircling the island and isolating it from the air. Meanwhile, dozens of ships from the Chinese navy also seem to be forming an airtight blockade, surrounding Taiwan. Other ships seem to be moving alongside two Chinese aircraft carriers, the Fujian and the Liaoning. The map garnered more than 700,000 views across several different X posts.
Map shared by a suspicious account
However, this interpretation of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s manoeuvres is misleading.
China has indeed deployed significant military means since November 2. Joseph Wu, the secretary general of Taiwan’s National Security Council, reported on November 3 that 100 ships from the Chinese navy and coast guard were in the western Pacific. Meanwhile, Taipei’s Ministry of National Defence reported the same day that 49 Chinese military aircraft had been detected near Taiwan.
However, this deployment does not mean a blockade has been implemented on Taiwan, says Emmanuel Véron, an associate researcher in the geopolitics department at HEC Paris. “This claim is absolutely false,” he said. “It’s either exaggerations made by influencers or Chinese propaganda claiming ‘that’s it’, the People’s Republic of China controls Taiwan.”
Our suspicions were raised by the biographical information on one of the accounts that shared this map, Fablex. While the profile claims Fablex is located in California, the X account’s information says it is based in Uganda. While it is possible that the location of an account can be altered with the use of a VPN, this clue suggests – along with an analysis of its other posts about, among other topics, the Epstein affair – that it is actually just a clickbait account. That means it aims to get views by sharing viral and sensationalist posts.
Civilian ships still moving around Taiwan
In a report posted on X, the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defence also said that during a 24-hour period between November 8 and 9, just one Chinese aircraft was counted north of Taiwan – a drop from the 49 flights recorded on November 3. On the same day, just eight Chinese ships were spotted near Taiwan. “Eight ships are just not enough to organise a blockade,” Véron says. “It is possible that we are seeing the winding down of these operations.”
According to MarineTraffic, civilian ships have continued to circulate Taiwan. The container ship One Hanoi, for example, left the Kaohsiung port in the south of Taiwan on November 3, during the height of the operations carried out by the People’s Liberation Army around Taiwan. The ship then entered the Taiwan Strait.
‘Gigantic operation’ on several fronts
What is China’s goal in carrying out these military manoeuvres? Unlike last year’s military drill, Chinese authorities didn’t announce the operations before they began, no doubt by design.
“The aim is to play with communication,” Véron says. “They might make an announcement after the exercises. They also might be trying to remain relatively discreet ahead of the next APEC summit [Editor’s note: Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation], which will be held in China [Editor’s note: on November 18].”
However, Véron does say that the extent of the Chinese military operations underway is unprecedented:
“For several days now, we’ve seen a gigantic naval operation underway. The different branches of the army are participating, but the naval contingent is actually huge and involves the mobilisation of about a hundred ships from the Chinese navy as well as the Coast Guard and even auxiliary fishing ships across different fronts. And in that, we are seeing a kind of first.”
Up until now, the large military exercises aimed at putting pressure on Taiwan largely took place on the side of the island facing China. Now we are seeing operations take place in the north, the south and the centre.”
A map shared by the Institute for the Study of War, a research organisation based in the United States, showed that on November 3, the Chinese navy was not just deployed around Taiwan but also in the South China Sea, the East China Sea and the Philippine Sea.
Simulation, not an invasion
The size of the operations underway does not indicate an imminent invasion of Taiwan, says Véron:
“We are not going to wake up tomorrow to an operation where Taiwan is being taken by force. This is a ‘drill’, as soldiers say, a training exercise carried out in real geographic and operational conditions. The aim is to simulate a real military operation to train, to test and to exert pressure on the Taiwanese government and Taiwan’s allies. It’s a continuation of the pressure that China has long put on Taiwan.”
This article has been translated from the original in French by Brenna Daldorph.
