USD/CAD’s extended decline last week indicates short term topping at 1.4298 after rejection by 1.4290 fibonacci level. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 38.2% retracement of 1.3730 to 1.4298 at 1.4081. On the upside, above 1.4195 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, focus remains on 61.8% retracement of 1.4791 (2025 high) to 1.3480 at 1.4290. Decisive break there will add to the case that rise from 1.3480 is reversing the whole fall from 1.4791 (2025 high). Further rally should then be seen back to this high. However, rejection by 1.4290, followed by sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.3925) will revive medium term bearishness.
In the long term picture, strong support from 55 M EMA (now at 1.3654) argues that up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) is still in progress. Break of 1.4791 is in favor at a later stage.
