In some ways, Tottenham Hotspur can feel like it left points on the table after outplaying Manchester United for much of the match, but at the same time the one point earned was technically a heroic rescue. Obviously moral victories provide no solace given the state of the club, though how Spurs feel about that Old Trafford draw will be heavily impacted by how Monday’s performance plays out.
Roberto De Zerbi desperately needs a win, and one would think a home fixture against Coventry City offers a great chance for one. Frank Lampard’s squad has won two in a row, however, and Tottenham has won just five of its past 12 contests against newly promoted sides, owning a tragic 2-2-2 record in North London in these scenarios.
Both sides probably come into this clash feeling better than they did a few matchweeks ago, especially following Coventry’s big win over Newcastle. I keep on (foolishly) waiting for everything to click into place for Spurs, but know the narratives run against this Monday night showdown being profitable, even if the analytics like the home side. Who knows, though, maybe this is exactly the right time!
Date: Monday, October 19
Time: 3:00 pm ET, 8:00 pm UK
Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
TV: USA Network (US), Sky Sports Main Event (UK)
It actually was just a couple of seasons ago when these teams last played, with Tottenham escaping the Third Round of the League Cup with a 2-1 win after falling behind. A rotated Spurs squad fell behind with just 30 minutes remaining, but very late goals from Djed Spence and Brennan Johnson avoided catastrophe on the road.
Optimistically seeing opportunities
Coventry has conceded 11 goals through six league matches, though eight of those came in just two contests. The past two fixtures, both wins, feature a combined 5-1 scoreline, while Spurs obviously sit at the bottom of the league in terms of goals scored. Where, then, does optimism come from? Well, this is still not a great defense by any means, and there have been so many green shoots coming from the Tottenham attack lately.
Every single match I say the goals are bound to come at some point, and there is no difference this Monday. Coventry will likely be cautious defensively, but even in the past two wins, opponents were the ones ending with better xG. Savio and Omar Marmoush were brought in to be able to unlock these sorts of defenses, and maybe just maybe Dominic Solanke can start converting more as well.
On the other end, Coventry does not seem overly intimidating, especially away from home, having scored just once in three tries. In fact, four of the six league fixtures have ended up without a single goal (where have I heard that before…) and the Newcastle beatdown feels like an extreme outlier. This is not a great opponent and one De Zerbi absolutely must handle.
Pessimistically predicting the headlines
Even though that Newcastle explosion is unlikely to be repeated, there certainly is going to be a ton of confidence from the visitors, especially with Taiwo Awoniyi back available. It is unclear what that means for the young Sidiki Cherif, who has played well and got on the scoresheet, but perhaps like Spurs this could be the start of some higher scoring tallies for Lampard’s group.
Narratives are just narratives, though these seemingly straightforward fixtures have been anything but that recently. As things tend to go, Tottenham are hosting Coventry right as the newly promoted side finally starts clicking, but even if both teams were slumping, a goalless draw would be easy to imagine. While the home crowd can be an asset, it also will get restless if another strong opening 30 minutes goes by with nothing to show for it.
More tactically speaking, the traditional fear of the counterattack remains valid. Coventry will not care to possess the ball and will look to pounce in transition. That risk is always elevated when Spurs are forced to throw tons of bodies forward when the box is packed, and conceding first would likely see the box extremely clogged for the rest of the match, adding to Tottenham’s scoring woes. Surely the underdogs will have this in mind heading into Monday.
There are many reasons to feel nervous about this contest, and even though the betting odds favor the ostensibly more talented team, the actual table does not suggest Tottenham is the better side — and surely the viewing public feels a very specific way. For over two years now, I keep thinking week after week that the ship will finally correct its course, yet the bottom part of the table is where this club continues to live.
Nevertheless, I am ready to be hurt again. I think Coventry will come in with some energy and intent, but might actually be hurt by that given Spurs’ strong efforts coming out of the blocks. If one of these spells of play finally yields a goal, this team would look drastically different. De Zerbi should take the offensive and keep throwing his attack forward; overwhelming this sort of opponent is the right way to go.
