- Counterpoint Research reports a 20% decline in smartphone shipments compared to this time last year
- That puts this period at the lowest level in 14 years
- The RAM crisis is largely to blame, but consumers may also be holding on to their phones for other reasons
This year seemingly hasn’t been a vintage one for phone companies. According to Counterpoint Research, global shipments are 20% lower this quarter than in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, making this the lowest Q3 in 14 years.
You can probably guess the main reason for that, as the ongoing RAM crisis is both pushing up prices and leading to component shortages. That means disrupted shipments for phone manufacturers — causing some models to be in shorter supply — and higher prices for consumers, which can make the prospect of an upgrade less appealing or affordable.
Still, this 14-year low might not be purely down to the RAM crisis, as Counterpoint additionally claims that consumers are “holding on to their devices longer than expected.”
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Now obviously, high prices could cause people to hold off on upgrading, but presumably the RAM crisis was factored into consumer behavior, so if people are holding onto their devices for longer than expected even with that factored in, then there might be something else at play too.
What could that be? The report doesn’t take a guess, but it might be that phones are simply less interesting or flawed than they once were. These days, even quite low-end phones are often highly capable, and run well for years — which wasn’t always the case.
At the high end, it’s increasingly hard for manufacturers to offer meaningful upgrades and differentiation when the best phones already have more power than most people need, along with superb screens and cameras.
Apple and Samsung are picking up market share
In any case, according to this report, Apple and Samsung seem the most resilient to these challenging times, with Samsung actually increasing its market share to 23%, despite a 3% decline in shipments compared to this period last year. That’s in large part apparently due to the success of the Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 8.
Apple also grew its market share, rising to 22% despite also selling fewer phones than this time last year. It’s likely that the brand would have done even better had it shipped a base iPhone 18, rather than waiting until next year for that.
Other brands like Xiaomi, Oppo, and Vivo meanwhile saw sharp declines in shipments and a drop in market share alongside that, allowing Apple and Samsung to increase their own market shares in turn.
But across the whole industry it seems fewer phones are being sold — and while things might improve once the RAM crisis is over, they might not completely return to ‘normal’ if there are other reasons for this change in customer behavior, too.
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