England kept their slim Rugby League World Cup hopes alive with victory over France, but what do Brian McDermott’s side still need to reach the semi-finals?
A potential first group-stage exit in World Cup history became an increasing possibility after a heavy 30-12 defeat to Tonga in their tournament opener, with England still needing results to go in their favour even after an 82-0 demolition of France.
The unique format for this year’s 10-team tournament sees the three teams in each of Group B and Group C feed into a combined six-team table, with only the top two sides then progressing to the semi-finals.
England currently have two points with one group stage match remaining, against Papua New Guinea on Friday (9.05am kick-off), where they will need another convincing victory to have any chance of progressing.
Can Brian McDermott’s side avoid a group stage exit?
Who are favourites to qualify?
Head-to-head records will determine league positions over points difference, should multiple teams be tied, so qualification is now out of England’s hands regardless of their own performance.
Tonga are already guaranteed to finish above England in the standings, having already picked up two wins this tournament and secured the better head-to-head record by beating them earlier this month.
England’s hopes of progression rest on Tonga beating Samoa on November 1, which would see Kristian Woolf’s side top the table on six points and see second spot decided on points difference.
What would England then need?
Quite simply, before Tonga face Samoa, England must beat Papua New Guinea and do it by a considerable margin.
Samoa’s thumping 78-4 win over France in their tournament opener and a 64-6 victory over Papua New Guinea on Saturday leaves them with an impressive +132 point difference.
Samoa are looking to reach their second successive Rugby League World Cup final
England beating France takes them to a +64 points difference, 68 points behind Samoa heading into the final round of fixtures. Another win Friday would lift them to four points and level with both Samoa and Tonga.
McDermott’s side would then be left to wait 48 hours for the outcome of Tonga vs Samoa in Sydney. A Samoa win would guarantee England’s elimination, while a Tonga victory would see the points difference decide second spot.
England don’t necessarily need to beat Papua New Guinea by 68 points or more, but a victory by that margin would mean any Tonga loss would be enough to progress.
A smaller England win would see them need Tonga losing by a bigger score, depending on England’s final points difference.
What would happen next?
The winner of the combined Groups B+C table would progress to the semi-final to face the runner-up of Group A, a four-team league consisting of Australia, New Zealand, Fiji and the Cook Islands.
Australia are favourites to top Group A after edging out New Zealand 24-22 in a thrilling tournament opener on October 15, with the winner of New Zealand vs Fiji on October 31 likely to take second spot.
Jack Bostock scored a hat-trick for Australia in their victory over New Zealand
The two semi-finals take place in Newcastle and Sydney respectively on November 7 and 8, with the Pool B+C winner in the opening semi-final, before the final takes place in Brisbane on November 15.
And what about the Women’s World Cup?
The format for the women’s competition is less complicated, with eight teams separated into two pools of four and the top two from each then progressing to the semi-finals.
Samoa’s 76-0 demolition of Wales leaves them level on points with England, who trail the Pacific islanders on points difference after their heavy 82-0 loss to Australia on Saturday.
Samoa run in 14 tries during their one-side victory over Wales on Friday
England face Samoa in Wollongong on Friday, where the winners will confirm second in Group A with four points and book a semi-final meeting against the winner of Group B. An unlikely draw would see Samoa progress on points difference.
New Zealand – who have appeared in every Women’s Rugby League World Cup final – are expected to top Group B, with Papua New Guinea, Fiji and France the others in that pool.
The two semi-finals are played on November 7 and 8 ahead of the final on November 15, with all three fixtures double-headers with men’s matches. Australia are defending champions and chase a fourth consecutive World Cup title.
