Rocket Lab sits 52% below its 52-week high after dilutive stock sales, yet Stifel’s Erik Rasmussen holds a $150 target implying 109% upside.
Planet Labs leads peers with 88% consensus upside while AST SpaceMobile trails at 29%, leaving Rocket Lab’s 52% consensus gain in the middle.
Rocket Lab’s record $2.36 billion backlog and path to positive cash flow both hinge on Neutron’s first launch, now slipped to Q4 2026.
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Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) currently trades at $71.92. Wall Street’s average price target is $109.15, which implies 51.8% upside.
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Rocket Lab flies the Electron rocket. It runs HASTE hypersonic test missions, builds spacecraft and components, and is finishing its Neutron medium-lift reusable rocket. Defense spending is the main draw. The Space Force budget requests $7.8 billion for space access. Rocket Lab is listed as a prime contractor on both national security launch programs.
The high end of the target range is even further away. Stifel’s Erik Rasmussen has a Street-high $150 target and a reiterated Buy rating. That target implies 108.6% upside, so he expects the stock to more than double.
Dilution and the Iridium Deal Pulled Rocket Lab Off Its Highs
Dilution did the most damage. Rocket Lab sold $1.08 billion of stock through its at-the-market program in the second quarter alone. Part of that money is for the Iridium Communications (NASDAQ:IRDM) acquisition, which is a cash and stock transaction. Management also guided the basic share count to about 641 million. Shares fell 13.78% over three months and now sit 52.4% below the 52-week high of $151.
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The earnings report added pressure. Revenue of $234.07M rose 62.0% and beat estimates. The GAAP loss of $0.08 per share missed the -$0.0767 estimate, partly due to $8.58M in deal costs. Guidance calls for adjusted EBITDA loss of $17M to $23M, larger than the quarter’s $8.8 million. Management said the Neutron launch window this year is narrowing. A beta of 2.938 means swings tend to be larger than the market’s.
Analysts Are Banking on Neutron and a $2.36 Billion Backlog
Analysts remain bullish. Four rate the stock Strong Buy, 12 rate it Buy, four rate it Hold, and none rate it Sell. Stifel’s thesis rests on three points. Neutron could compete with SpaceX’s Falcon 9; Space Systems brings in more than two-thirds of revenue; defense contracts provide long-term backlog visibility.
Backlog grew 137% to a record $2.36 billion, with about 45.5% converting to revenue within 12 months. Recent wins include a $397M Space Force Flatellite contract and a $266 million award for up to 18 missile-defense launches. Neutron targets $50 to $55 million per launch. The CEO said, “We have absolutely zero issues in selling full price Neutrons pre-test flights.”
The timeline is weak. Management linked positive free cash flow to Neutron’s first successful launch, and Neutron’s debut already slipped to Q4 2026. Iridium brings more than $870 million in annual revenue but closes mid-2027. The stock trades at 62.4 times sales.
Space Peers Fell Too, and Planet Labs Shows the Bigger Gap
Shares of AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) trade at $60.65, down 8.27% over the past month and 16.49% year to date. Its $77.94 target implies 28.5% upside. Ratings are conservative with one Strong Buy, four Buy, seven Hold, one Sell and one Strong Sell.
Planet Labs (NYSE:PL) trades at $17.75 and is down 9.99% year to date. Its $33.40 target implies 88.2% upside. Ratings include one Strong Buy, six Buy, three Hold and one Sell. Its gap is larger than Rocket Lab’s.
Planet Labs has the biggest consensus upside in the group, while Rocket Lab sits in the middle, and only Stifel’s target puts it in doubling territory. Price targets are opinions and come with no guarantee for any of these stocks.
Rocket Lab Beats Its Peers but Lags the S&P 500
At $71.92, Rocket Lab has 51.8% upside to the $109.15 consensus target. The stock bounced 11.92% over the past month but dropped 4.18% in its most recent trading day.
Rocket Lab has gained 3.1% so far this year, and the S&P 500 is up 13.98%. The $69.94 50-day average sits below the $81.50 200-day average, so the longer-term trend still points down.
Neutron’s First Flight Decides Whether $150 Is Realistic
The bull case strengthens if Neutron reaches the pad on schedule, flies smoothly and converts that 90+ mission backlog into higher-priced revenue. Positive cash flow comes into view and Iridium adds recurring revenue. If Neutron slips again, the downside case strengthens. Rocket Lab would then be funding Neutron, three acquisitions and ongoing burn, likely through more share issuance.
I are bullish. The backlog and defense demand back up the consensus target, but until Neutron flies, $109.15 is a more realistic marker than $150.
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