Netflix trades at $72.56 with a BUY rating and $81.87 price target, implying 13% upside despite a 23% year-to-date decline.
Disney trades at 14x forward earnings with half Netflix’s revenue growth, making Netflix’s 19x multiple look reasonable by comparison.
Netflix’s $4.7B record buyback quarter and $27B remaining capacity anchor the bull case alongside ad revenue tracking toward $3B in 2026.
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Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) shares have climbed 4.1% over the past week to $72.56, with earnings expected on October 20. The 24/7 Wall St. price target for Netflix is $81.87 over the next 12 months, implying 12.8% upside.
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Our framework gives the stock a buy with high confidence.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary
Revenue is still growing at a double-digit pace. Advertising is on track to roughly double to about $3B in 2026. And Netflix has $27.1B of buyback capacity left. At 19x forward earnings, investors pay a modest multiple for that combination.
NFLX Price Target — 24/7 Wall St.
A One-Week Bounce Follows a Bruising Year
The recent strength comes off a deep hole. Netflix is down 9.66% over the past month and 22.61% year to date, while the S&P 500 has gained 12.96%. Shares sit 41.9% below the 52-week high of $124.86 and 11.5% above the low of $65.08.
In July, second-quarter EPS of $0.80 exceeded the $0.7883 estimate, while revenue of $12.56B rose 13.37% but came in slightly under expectations. Management guided third-quarter EPS to $0.82. Sentiment heading into the report is mixed.
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Huber Research downgraded the stock to underweight, citing a reported 5% headcount reduction and engagement concerns. KeyBanc kept its overweight rating but cut its target.
Why Bulls See $119.94
Management estimates Netflix is under 45% penetrated across roughly 800 million addressable households and captures about 7% of a $670 billion revenue market. Pricing power, live events like the expanded NFL deal and a gap between ad-tier and standard-plan revenue per member all leave room for growth.
Netflix also bought back $4.7B of stock in the second quarter, its largest buyback quarter ever. Of the analysts tracked, 35 rate the stock a buy or strong buy and only 1 rates it a sell. If ads and pricing outperform, our bull scenario reaches $119.94.
NFLX Analyst Ratings — 24/7 Wall St.
Engagement Doubts Could Cap the Rebound
Viewing hours grew just 2% in the first half of 2026. Second-quarter free cash flow fell 32.73% to $1.53B.
Much of that decline results from higher cash taxes tied to the Warner Bros. Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD) termination fee, and full-year free cash flow guidance remains near $12.5B. A $1B debt maturity and speculation about a large acquisition add risk. Our bear scenario lands at $74.88.
NFLX Price Scenario — 24/7 Wall St.
Netflix Sits Between Disney and Spotify on Valuation
Disney (NYSE:DIS) is Netflix’s most direct streaming rival through Disney+ and Hulu. It trades at 14x forward earnings, but its quarterly revenue grew only 6.8%, about half of Netflix’s pace.
Spotify (NYSE:SPOT) shows what investors pay for subscription-plus-advertising growth. Spotify trades at 29x forward earnings on 13.9% revenue growth, nearly matching Netflix’s 13.4%, with a far thinner operating margin.
The 24/7 Wall St. price target implies roughly 24x forward EPS. That sits well below Spotify’s multiple, so we view the target as reasonable and arguably conservative.
Margins and Buybacks Drive Our Model’s Outlook
The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $81.87 takes a buy rating and 90% confidence. What makes the call for me is industry-leading margins coupled with aggressive buybacks.
The October report will show whether ad revenue is tracking toward the $3B goal. Slowing engagement or a large acquisition would weaken the case. Our model sees more upside than downside at the current price.
Here is where our model projects Netflix could trade further out if current growth trends and market conditions hold.
The forecast relies on Netflix continuing to follow its current strategy. Faster ad monetization could drove results above this path, while weaker engagement or a costly acquisition could pull them below it.
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