Nearly a week after the Premier League found Manchester City guilty for 114 of the initial 115 charges brought against the club, it feels as if we’re waiting to step across some new frontier.
So damning was the language in the league’s redacted report that it really feels as if any punishment is suddenly on the table. The extent to which Man City were found to have broken the rules is unprecedented, and so too will likely be the punishment.
If you asked most reporters, say, two weeks ago about the possibility of Manchester City being relegated, we would’ve laughed it off. Well, as of today? Man City’s relegation odds on DraftKings currently sit at plus-170, which implies odds of about 37%.
Do I think Manchester City are going to get relegated now? Well, I’d say there’s something like a one-in-three chance that it actually happens. The team that has won six of the past eight Premier League titles might literally get kicked out of the Premier League. We’d be foolish to rule out transfer bans, stripping of titles, or, really, anything else.
Given that sense of prevailing uncertainty — of what the punishment might be, of what the league will look like after it happens — I want to do a little thought experiment. To be clear, I don’t actually think that the Premier League is going to eliminate the existence of Manchester City and make all of their players available in an American-style expansion draft, but what, well … what if they did?
I created the draft order based on the number of collective points that each club has won over the past four full seasons. And I broke the tiebreaker between Hull City and Coventry City based on Championship points over the same stretch.
Rather than trying to put myself inside the minds of each club’s specific decision-makers, I made each pick as if I were running each club, based on what I think they should do, while occasionally hewing closer to the modus operandi of a couple of teams.
As for player contracts, consider this an imagined reality in which each team is able to afford and sign whomever they select.
With that, Hull City are now on the clock …
He’s the best goal scorer in Premier League history, and you don’t even have to worry about the system fit. Although Haaland plays for a dominant possession team, he barely ever touches the ball — he already plays as if he’s on a counter-attacking, bottom-half-of-the-table team.
The fit and the need is so obvious that I’d say Haaland might be worth more than twice as much to Hull as any other player on this list.
Oh, and in case you were worried it was a Pep Guardiola thing …
He already has nearly a full expected goal ahead of the player in second — and the current season is five games old.
2. Coventry City: Rayan Cherki, attacking midfielder
We’re quickly approaching a point at which it’s not inappropriate to wonder whether Cherki is actually the best player in the Premier League.
Per the possession-value ratings from the stats app Futi, Cherki rates out as an 86 out of 100 so far this season — just ever so slightly behind league-leading Arsenal pair Bukayo Saka and Declan Rice at 87.
If you wanted to make a case for Cherki for the No. 1 pick, I wouldn’t laugh at it. He’s three years younger than Haaland, and among players 23 or younger, no one else in the league rates above a 70.
If you’re Ipswich, do you want a high ceiling or a high floor? That’s the choice you’re left with at this spot. We’ll assume that Man City have occupied one of the relegation slots already, so that lowers your relegation odds.
On top of that, they’ve been pretty good so far this season: decent points haul, better underlying numbers than Chelsea. So, I think they can take the risk: If Doku stays healthy, he’s one of the best wingers in the world, and he’s still only 24.
Sunderland, who seem as if they might have solidified their status in the Premier League, were probably hoping that Doku fell to them. He’s the kind of player who can vault a solid team up the table all on his own.
Instead, they get Anderson, who is only 23 and who we’ve already seen flourish on a lower-half-of-the-table team. Plus, he provides Granit Xhaka insurance — in many different ways.
Given the logo on the front of their jersey and the way the club has canonized Marcelo Bielsa, they’re inclined to take a risk, so Fernandez is the pick here.
He has never broken 70 in Futi’s model — he doesn’t defend anymore, he’s not elite in any one phase of play, and he turns the ball over a lot — but Leeds would build their entire approach around him crashing the box and getting on the ball as much as possible.
In another life, he’s already a cult hero at another midtable Premier League club.
6. Nottingham Forest: Marc Guéhi, center back
This feels a little bit like when an NFL team lands the safety or defensive tackle that many analysts think is the best player in the draft, because everyone else was obsessed with chasing premium positions like quarterback, offensive tackle, and defensive end.
Guehi was great within Oliver Glasner’s low-possession-but-still-attacking approach at Palace. He’d be great within the same system at Forest under Glasner again.
7. Everton: Phil Foden, attacking midfielder
Remember when tweener-types — not-quite-wingers-or-midfielders like Steven Pienaar and Tim Cahill and even aging, pony-tailed Jack Grealish — were great for coach David Moyes? Foden is way better than all of them and still in the middle of his peak years.
After a couple of down years, Foden had looked back to his best under Enzo Maresca before getting sent off against Manchester United. Under Moyes at Everton, he could get back to where he started this season.
8. Crystal Palace: Josko Gvardiol, defender
Palace might be the worst defensive team in the league, and Gvardiol is one of the best young defenders in the world. He’d fill an immediate, dire need — and he’s only just entering his peak years. If I were grading this draft, I’d give myself an A for this pick.
Bet you thought they’d go with Semenyo, huh?
Bournemouth understand their place in the Premier League hierarchy better than almost anyone else, and it’s hard to see them passing up on a 19-year-old phenom for a 26-year-old with only a couple of peak years remaining in his career.
It’s still an open debate whether Semenyo is a Premier or Champions League-winning player.
He was red-hot in front of goal last year, but that’s unlikely to continue. And without it, Semenyo isn’t the low-touch, high-efficiency winger or the high touch, high production that you need to be on a top team.
Last season, he really struggled to consistently move the ball into valuable areas. This chart compares his performance to Doku’s last season. The bigger the square, the more touches the player took, while the coloring shows how much he increased his team’s chances of scoring, on average:
Fulham, of course, are not a top team, and they’re flirting with a relegation battle right now. Semenyo would immediately become their best attacker.
Tottenham’s current left back, Andy Robertson, is 32, and he has started four of Tottenham’s five league matches so far this season. O’Reilly, meanwhile, is 11 years younger and is significantly better in the same position, right now, than the former Liverpool star.
Spurs shouldn’t be drafting toward the tenuous tactical needs of embattled coach Roberto Di Zerbi, but O’Reilly’s flexibility in possession would theoretically make for a nice fit.
12. Brentford: Rúben Dias, center back
Dias is older (29) than you might expect to join a club like the data-driven Bees, but the fit just feels right.
Sure, Dias is one of the better passing center backs in the league, but he always seems more excited when he’s throwing his body around in the penalty area. Plus, if there’s a time to make a win-now move for Brentford, it’s right now, when they have a legitimate shot at qualifying for the Champions League.
From an obscure soccer hinterland? Barely old enough to order a Miller Lite? Combines elite physical traits with measurable on-field production? Check, check and check.
Khusanov is the most Brighton-coded player on Man City’s roster.
Ait-Nouri would give Chelsea something that they haven’t had at all this season: league-average wingback play. Jorrel Hato isn’t a wingback, and Pep Chavarría has the profile of a depth player rather than a member of the starting XI.
15. Manchester United: Iliman Ndiaye, winger
With all the extra games this season, United need as many attackers as they can get. I don’t think Ndiaye improves on any of the players they already have in the attacking band, but the other players still available would all probably be backups in positions where the backups typically don’t play much. Ndiaye would at least get some playing time.
Every draft needs one guy who keeps falling down the board.
Donnarumma is one of the most famous players on Man City’s roster, and can’t you picture him hunched over at a table in the green room, looking embarrassed as wingbacks and backup wingers get selected ahead of him? Can’t you see the cousin of superagent Mino Raiola pacing around the table, screaming into a cellphone, berating some poor Fulham executive for not selecting his client?
Anyway, this isn’t an indictment on Donnarumma’s abilities. Rather, the top picks are inevitably going to be outfield players, and then the middle of the draft had a bunch of teams that didn’t need an urgent goalkeeper upgrade. “Keeper depth” isn’t useless, but it’s toward the bottom of required squad-building characteristics. And so, Newcastle lucks out and gets a big upgrade on Lukás Hornícek.
17. Aston Villa: Matheus Nunes, fullback
Nunes has turned into a very good right back over the past couple of seasons, and his fall down the board is a matter of circumstance. Most of the teams ahead of Villa don’t need a 28-year-old fullback, and I’m not sure that’s exactly what Villa needs, either. But Nunes would be a slightly-younger upgrade on 29-year-old Matty Cash.
18. Liverpool: Allan Elias, winger
Liverpool would be devastated by Nunes being selected one spot before they were on the clock. OK, “devasted” is hyperbole, but their right-back situation is a mess. It turns out that replacing Trent Alexander-Arnold, the greatest attacking fullback in Premier League history, isn’t so easy.
Nunes would be a nice temporary solution: more attacking chops than Ronald Araújo and way more reliable defensively and with the ball at his feet and physically, and in pretty much every other aspect of playing soccer than Jeremie Frimpong.
Instead, they buy another lottery ticket with Allan and add to their growing collection of raw, young, unproven wingers.
19. Arsenal: Rico Lewis, fullback
He probably won’t solve any problems for Arsenal, and he probably won’t play much — if at all. But Lewis is still only 21, and he already has played more than 4,000 Premier League minutes.
With Manchester City out of the title picture, Arsenal can reverse out of the win-now mode they entered last summer and start planning for the future again.
