PARIS, FRANCE – OCTOBER 02: Michael Olise of France takes on Riccardo Calafiori of Italy during the UEFA Nations League 2026/27 group phase match between France and Italy at Stade de France on October 02, 2026 in Paris, France. (Photo by Pauline Figuet/Getty Images)
Italy are expected to start Pio Esposito, Sandro Tonali, Riccardo Calafiori and Michael Kayode in the penultimate Nations League match, while France rely on Michael Olise in the absence of Kylian Mbappé.
It kicks off at San Siro, the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milan, on Thursday at 19.45 GMT (20.45 CET).
Only the top two go through from Group A1 into the quarter-finals of the Nations League, and currently France lead on 10 points, followed by Italy with seven and Belgium on six.
The final round will see the Azzurri and Red Devils go head-to-head in Brussels, while France host rock bottom Turkiye.
Roberto Mancini is expected to adopt his usual 4-3-3 formation, but there are quite a few doubts over the starting XI.
Brentford right-back Kayode would seem to have done enough to earn his spot, while Arsenal’s Calafiori at left-back means dropping Inter man Federico Dimarco to the bench.
An alternative would be moving Calafiori to central defence with Alessandro Bastoni, therefore starting Dimarco and sending Giorgio Scalvini to the touchline.
In midfield, Davide Frattesi and Tonali seem sure of their places, with Nicolò Barella of Inter the favourite to complete the trio.
Inter striker Pio Esposito is set to lead the attack, but the rest of the trident is up in the air.
His older brother Sebastiano Esposito is the primary candidate on the right side ahead of Como’s Mattia Liberali, while Nicolò Cambiaghi of Bologna would seem to be ahead of Luca Koleosho on the left.
France go into this match without Real Madrid striker Mbappé due to a hamstring injury, and curiously he was also absent when these two teams drew 1-1 in Paris on October 2.
He isn’t the only one, as they have had to give up on Marcus Thuram, Pierre Kalulu, Aurelien Tchouameni, Manu Koné, William Saliba, Jules Koundé, Maxence Lacroix, Ousmane Dembélé, Maghnes Akliouche and Esteban Lepaul.
It is therefore likely that the front three will be made up of Olise, Désiré Doué and Bradley Barcola, but in which order remains to be seen.
Barcola was not originally included to be a centre-forward, but might have to adapt in the circumstances.
If not, then Eli Junior Kroupi or 20-year-old late addition Senny Mayulu could be wild card alternatives to start as Number 9.
There is Serie A representation from Milan pair Mike Maignan and Adrien Rabiot, while Como midfielder Lucas Da Cunha is expected to start, although Eduardo Camavinga is waiting in the wings.
In defence, Adrien Truffert of Bournemouth is the favourite over Inter’s Andy Diouf for left-back, with either Ibrahim Konaté or Jérémy Jacquet in central defence.
Italy vs. France probable line-ups
Italy (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Kayode, Scalvini, Bastoni, Calafiori; Frattesi, Tonali, Barella; S Esposito, Pio Esposito, Cambiaghi
France (4-3-3): Maignan; Gusto, Konaté, Upamecano, Truffert; Cherki, Da Cunha, Rabiot; Olise, Barcola, Doué
