Is It Too Late to Buy Micron Technology Stock After Its 12-Month Gain of 500%?

Key Points

• Artificial intelligence (AI) workloads in data centers, smartphones, computers, and even cars require an increasing amount of memory capacity.

• Micron Technology is one of the world’s top memory suppliers, and its revenue more than tripled during its 2026 fiscal year.

• Micron stock looks like a bargain, but valuation alone doesn’t tell the whole story.

• 10 stocks we like better than Micron Technology ›

Graphics processing units (GPUs) are the most important data center chips for processing artificial intelligence (AI) workloads, which is why investors have piled into suppliers like Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices over the last few years. However, GPUs require an increasing amount of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to keep data flowing smoothly. Without it, bottlenecks would throttle the performance of AI chatbots and agents.

Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) is one of the world’s top suppliers of memory, and it’s experiencing significant AI-related demand across multiple categories, including the data center. As a result, its revenue and earnings are growing at an explosive rate, fueling a whopping 500% gain in its stock over the last 12 months (as of the market close on Thursday, Oct. 1).

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Can the rally continue, or have investors already priced in most of the company’s future growth?

Image source: The Motley Fool.

Micron just reported a blockbuster set of results for fiscal 2026

Micron wrapped up its 2026 fiscal year on Sept. 3. The company generated a record $133.1 billion in total revenue, a staggering 256% increase from the previous year. That growth rate accelerated significantly from fiscal 2025 when revenue increased by 49%.

AI-related demand for memory fueled the incredible result, and it didn’t come solely from the data center industry. Below are Micron’s four business units, their fiscal 2026 revenue, and their growth rates.

Data source: Micron Technology.

The cloud memory segment is where Micron accounts for memory sales to hyperscale customers (including companies like Amazon and Microsoft), as well as HBM sales to all data center customers. The core data center business includes sales of storage and non-HBM memory solutions to data center operators.

The mobile and client segment includes memory sales to manufacturers of smartphones and personal computers. This is an increasingly important category because AI models are quickly becoming more efficient, so many devices can now process them locally rather than relying on external data centers.

Finally, the automotive and embedded business is where Micron accounts for memory sales to car and robot manufacturers. The company says vehicles fitted with Level 4 autonomous capabilities (full self-driving) require more than double the memory and storage capacity than vehicles with older Level 2 and Level 3 technologies. Moreover, humanoid robots are expected to use as much memory as Level 4 autonomous vehicles, so both of these emerging industries present Micron with an enormous opportunity.

In a series of prepared remarks to shareholders released on Sept. 30, Micron Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra said memory supply could be even tighter in fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028 compared to fiscal 2026, suggesting the company’s revenue is likely to continue growing at a brisk pace.

Micron stock is technically cheap, but there’s a catch

The ongoing global shortage of memory is giving suppliers the ability to dictate prices, significantly boosting their profit margins. As a result, Micron’s earnings exploded higher by 879% to $74.33 per share during fiscal 2026. That places its stock at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 14.7, so it’s cheaper than both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 indexes which trade at P/E ratios of 23.5 and 35.2, respectively.

Wall Street’s average estimate (provided by Yahoo! Finance) suggests Micron could grow its earnings to $176.69 per share in fiscal 2027, placing its stock at a forward P/E of just 6.2. But why is a company growing at Micron’s pace trading at such a steep discount to the broader market? Simply put, the semiconductor industry has always been highly cyclical, so investors know the recent bonanza probably won’t last forever.

Micron and its competitors are racing to build more manufacturing capacity, which will eventually ease supply constraints and put downward pressure on prices. Micron won’t be able to maintain its current level of earnings when that time comes, so its stock might be more expensive than it currently appears at face value. Plus, the rising cost of chips and components could significantly impact demand in the near future.

Last Tuesday, ChatGPT creator OpenAI launched a new $500-per-month subscription plan to suit its heaviest users. At the same time, it halved the number of tokens available through its $200-per-month subscription, which used to be its top plan. In essence, the company has increased the price of its most expensive offering by 150% overnight, and rising infrastructure costs are almost certainly the reason why.

A few months ago, a survey conducted by UBS Group found that 60% of businesses were already routing some AI tasks to cheaper, more efficient models in an effort to reduce costs. These models use less computing power, so if this trend continues, Micron and every other semiconductor company could see a gradual drop in demand.

With all of that in mind, I personally won’t be buying Micron stock at the current price. I’m not predicting it will suffer a sharp decline in the near term, but it’s very difficult to determine its fair value given the potential shift in supply demand dynamics over the next couple of years.

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Anthony Di Pizio has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Advanced Micro Devices, Amazon, Micron Technology, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.