DoorDash Is Down 21% in 2026 and Reportedly in Instacart Sale Talks. Here’s Where the Stock Could Go by 2030

Key Stats for DoorDash Stock

• Current Price: $179.38

• Target Price (Mid): ~$880

• Street Target: ~$257

• Potential Total Return: ~390%

• Annualized IRR: ~46% / year

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What Happened?

DoorDash (DASH) fell 3.53% to $179.38 on October 23 after The Information reported that Instacart (CART) is exploring a sale and has held preliminary talks with DoorDash and Uber (UBER). Instacart closed about 9% higher and Uber about 3% lower, according to Reuters, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.43%. The split suggests investors were pricing what a deal could cost a buyer.

After the close, Bloomberg reported that Uber had walked away from talks with Instacart, citing one person familiar with the matter. If that holds, DoorDash is the only buyer named in the reports still in discussions. DoorDash is down 20.8% in 2026 and 33.3% below its $269.00 52-week high.

What $16 Billion Would Buy That DoorDash Doesn’t Already Have

The Information estimated that a typical 30% to 40% takeover premium would value Instacart at roughly $16 billion to $17 billion, per Reuters. Spread across DoorDash’s 433.30 million shares, that is about $37 to $39 a share, or roughly a fifth of its $77.72 billion market cap. It is also about eight times the $2.04 billion of net cash DoorDash reported at its latest quarter. No terms have been reported.

DoorDash would not be buying its way into grocery. It said in February that it became the top U.S. third-party marketplace by order count across grocery, convenience, alcohol, and retail in 2025, based on YipitData. That ranking counts orders, not dollars, and Reuters pointed to Instacart’s established marketplace and retailer ties as the prize for a buyer.

Antitrust is the main hurdle. DoorDash discussed buying Instacart in 2021 at a reported $40 billion to $50 billion valuation, and those talks fell apart partly over regulatory concerns, according to The Information. The current talks may not produce a deal, and none of the three companies commented.

DoorDash’s Own Grocery Fix Is Already Running

On the August 5 earnings call, Co-Founder, Chair and CEO Tony Xu said “grocers don’t know their inventory,” so customers can pay a delivery premium and still not get what they ordered.

DoorDash’s answer is DashMart Fulfillment Services, warehouses it runs near 24/7 for partner retailers. DoorDash is “seeing 10 times better error rates because we’re running the inventory,” he said, and he estimated it delivers roughly one-tenth of the retail and grocery selection available in most cities.

CFO Ravi Inukonda said new verticals should turn gross profit positive: “We’re on track for that in the second half of the year.” That remains a management target, and Xu called the warehouse build “complicated.”

TIKR tracks 45 analysts on DoorDash. How many say “Buy”? See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on DoorDash, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See DoorDash’s Analyst Ratings

TIKR Advanced Model Analysis

• Current Price: $179.38

• Target Price (Mid): ~$880

• Potential Total Return: ~390%

• Annualized IRR: ~46% / year

This analysis uses the mid case, measured from the $179.38 close on October 23. The TIKR model targets around $880 by December 31, 2030. That is 3.4 times the Street’s 12-month mean target of $257.37 and above the highest 12-month target of $350, though those targets cover a shorter horizon.

Consensus has revenue compounding about 21% a year to around $35 billion in 2030, an estimate drawn from 10 analysts, with EBITDA margin widening from 20.3% in 2025 to around 29%. Management credits grocery, ads, and DashPass. Upside comes if grocery turns profitable on schedule. A large stock-funded deal would add shares and integration risk, cutting into per-share returns.

Conclusion

DoorDash reports Q3 results after the close on November 4. The line to watch is whether management keeps new verticals on track to turn gross profit positive in the second half of 2026. Holding that timeline supports building over buying. A slip, or a firm Instacart bid before the milestone, could leave shareholders paying for both.

So what is DoorDash stock actually worth?

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