China Iron Ore Prices Fall Post-Holiday: Q4 Supply Rise to Weigh – News and Statistics

Oct 14, 2026

China’s iron ore market is showing moderate demand after the national holiday, with an increase in supply of the raw material forecast for the fourth quarter that is expected to weigh on prices, according to GMK Center.

Data cited from Kallanish put the price of ore with 62% iron content delivered to Qingdao at $91.31 per tonne CFR as of 12 October, 1.9% below the level at the start of the month on 2 October. On 13 October the price slipped to $90.6 per tonne CFR.

A survey by Mysteel Global indicated that prices for imported iron ore in China declined broadly in the period immediately after the holidays, between 8 and 10 October, as trading activity recovered only modestly. Steel plants relied mainly on their own ore inventories during the seven-day break, and post-holiday replenishment demand was subdued, with market sources noting that most mills bought only the volumes needed for immediate production.

Port trading volumes of imported ore over those three days averaged about 609,000 tonnes per day, 32.2% below the level seen in the same period a year earlier during the first week after the national holiday. Interest among steel plants in buying raw materials has weakened because of negative margins on steel product sales, while stable supply volumes from Brazil and Australia have left the market oversupplied.

At the start of this week, iron ore prices drew support from expectations that Chinese steelmakers would resume purchases. Low profit margins at steelworks and the anticipated rise in fourth-quarter supply, as major mining companies increase shipments to meet annual targets, are nevertheless capping the potential for gains.

Analysts at Yongan Futures Co., whose recent report was cited by Bloomberg, expect iron ore prices to move away from being driven by the combination of high steel output and support from freight rates, and to be determined instead by factors including rising supply, weakening demand and stockpiling. They expect prices to trend lower in the fourth quarter.

At the end of September, iron ore prices had fallen back below $100 per tonne. Market sentiment in the second half of last month was shaped by renewed calls for production cuts in the steel industry and weak fundamentals at steelworks, while buyers had largely finished pre-holiday restocking.