We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League clash at Stamford Bridge with our Chelsea vs Tottenham prediction and preview. Can Roberto De Zerbi’s team get their second win of the 2026-27 campaign?
Chelsea vs Tottenham: The Key Stats
- Chelsea are the Opta supercomputer’s favourites, with a 53.6% win probability.
- Tottenham have lost each of their last six London derbies in the Premier League. In their entire league history, they have never lost seven derby games in a row.
- Cole Palmer’s next league goal will be his 50th in the competition for Chelsea.
Tottenham finally ended their wait for a Premier League win this season on Monday, beating Coventry City 3-1 at home, and they will hope to follow that up with another positive result at Chelsea on Saturday.
James Maddison scored a stunner on his first competitive start since May 2025, Omar Marmoush netted his maiden Spurs goal and Ben Davies came off the bench to grab the contest-settling goal in stoppage time.
Dejan Kulusevski also made his long-awaited return to action to rapturous applause from the stands, having been out injured since May 2025.
It was not the most convincing of 3-1 wins, but it got the job done, as Tottenham scored more than two goals in a Premier League match for the first time in 36 games.
In fact, it was the first time they scored 3+ goals on home soil in the league since MD1 last season against Burnley (3-0).
But Roberto De Zerbi’s team are back on the road this weekend as they aim to build on that first win, heading across London to Stamford Bridge.
Chelsea also won last weekend, beating Everton 2-0 thanks to a pair of Pedro Neto goals. In doing so, they kept their first clean sheet in a Premier League match since January.
The Blues are looking to win three consecutive Premier League games for the first time since a run of four in January/February. They last recorded back-to-back shutouts in December last year.
Since the start of last season, meanwhile, Spurs have only won consecutive league matches twice (August 2025 and May 2026).
In addition, Tottenham have lost each of their last six London derbies in the Premier League. In their entire league history, they have never lost seven derby games in a row.
Spurs had not scored a league goal earlier than the 86th minute this season before Maddison struck from the edge of the box in the 14th minute against his former side Coventry.
Chelsea, on the other hand, have been one of the league’s most potent teams this term. They have scored 17 goals, which ranks behind only Manchester City (19) and Brighton & Hove Albion (23).
However, Chelsea have actually outperformed their xG (9.9) by 7.1. That is the second-highest xG overperformance of any team in the division, after Brighton (+8.1), and demonstrates the quality of attackers Xabi Alonso has at his disposal, with Morgan Rogers, João Pedro and Cole Palmer forming a formidable front three.
In fact, João Pedro (+2.0) and Rogers (+1.9) are the fourth and fifth highest xG overperformers in the competition; they do not need to be in an excellent position to come up with a moment of magic, while Neto is the sixth-highest xG overperformer (+1.8).
Rogers has been involved in six goals in six games against Spurs (four goals, two assists), all while an Aston Villa player. Since the 2024-25 season, only Eberechi Eze has been involved in more goals against Spurs in all competitions (seven).
Spurs, meanwhile, have recorded the third-lowest xG in the Premier League this term, with their 7.5 xG ahead of only Coventry (7.1) and Hull City (6.8).
Against Coventry, though, Spurs became the first side to score three goals from outside the box in a single Premier League game since Fulham vs Leicester City in May 2023.
It was the first time Spurs have scored 3+ goals from outside the box in a league game since September 2022 vs Leicester.
Tottenham have scored a higher share of their goals from outside the box than any other side in the Premier League this season (50% – 3/6). And in Maddison, they have a player adept at finishing from range.
Since making his Premier League debut in August 2018, Maddison has scored 21 goals from outside the box, at least two more than any other player (Kevin De Bruyne and James Ward-Prowse, 19 each).
Chelsea, then, must ensure they are not giving Spurs too much space to work with outside the area.
Alonso, though, will no doubt be focusing on what his team have to offer going the other way, and Palmer is likely to be influential. He has been involved in five goals in his five Premier League appearances against Spurs (two goals, two assists).
His next goal will be his 50th in the competition, and if he gets it in this match, he would become the third-fastest Chelsea player to reach that milestone (104 games).
Chelsea vs Tottenham Head-to-Head
Chelsea have only lost one of their last 16 Premier League London derbies at Stamford Bridge (W11 D4), a 2-1 reverse against Fulham on Boxing Day in 2024-25.
However, they have lost each of their last two home and away (2-1 vs Arsenal, 3-0 vs Brentford).
Spurs have won just one of their last 36 league visits to Stamford Bridge (D11 L24), a 3-1 victory in 2017-18 under Mauricio Pochettino. They have only picked up two points in eight visits since then (D2 L6).
Chelsea have won each of their last six Premier League matches against Spurs, their joint-longest ever winning league run against their London rivals (also six between January 2000 and March 2002).
Chelsea vs Tottenham Prediction
Opta’s supercomputer has run 10,000 data-led simulations, and Chelsea come out on top 55.0% of the time.
The chance of a Spurs win is rated at 21.8%.
Chelsea vs Tottenham Predicted Lineups
Chelsea: Mike Penders, Josh Acheampong, Maxence Lacroix, Levi Colwill, Jorrel Hato, Moisés Caicedo, Jordan Henderson, Pedro Neto, Cole Palmer, Morgan Rogers, João Pedro
Manager: Xabi Alonso
Tottenham: Antonín Kinsky, Jan Paul van Hecke, Micky van de Ven, Marcos Senesi, Ben Davies, Sandro Tonali, Archie Gray, James Maddison, Mohammed Kudus, Mathys Tel, Dominic Solanke
Head coach: Roberto De Zerbi
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 16,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Sunday in west London, here is the Opta Power Ranking for each side.
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