A significant change to the nation’s weather is taking shape late this week, with a growing consensus among computer forecast models that a nor’easter will form and lash the Northeast and New England with wind, rain and snow before ushering in a cold blast across the eastern part of the country.
THE TAKEAWAY:
- Growing consensus among computer forecast models that a nor’easter will form and lash the Northeast and New England with wind, rain and snow this weekend.
- There is still uncertainty about exactly how close to the coast this storm will track and how strong it will become.
- As the storm clears the region by the weekend, temperatures will plunge across the eastern U.S., potentially reaching as far south as the Gulf Coast and parts of Florida.
- By Saturday, 160 million people across the eastern half of the country could see below average temperatures on Saturday.
A significant change to the nation’s weather is taking shape late this week, with a growing consensus among computer forecast models that a nor’easter will form and lash the Northeast and New England with wind, rain and snow before ushering in a cold blast across the eastern part of the country.
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(FOX Weather)
A developing storm is expected to sweep out of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, bringing rain to the region on Wednesday. While much of the Northeast will see spotty showers beginning Thursday, higher elevations could see their first snow of the season.
Forecast models are increasingly confident that this storm will slide off the coast toward the end of the workweek and strengthen into a nor’easter, but there is still uncertainty about exactly how close to the coast it will track and how strong it will become.
As the storm clears the region by the weekend, temperatures will plunge across the eastern U.S., potentially reaching as far south as the Gulf Coast and parts of Florida, with 160 million people expected to see below average temperatures on Saturday.
(FOX Weather)
A strong ridge is building over the western United States and is helping colder Canadian air to punch south into the Northeast, while warmer air builds in the West. This provides a lift and upper-level energy needed to support a strengthening area of low pressure, setting the state for the late-week storm.
Instead of this being the typical El Niño pattern, this is the polar jet stream making an appearance. The dip in the polar jet stream will allow for the storm to initially originate somewhere from the Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley, setting the stage for the strengthening system.
(FOX Weather)
As well, the unusually early disruption of the stratospheric polar vortex high above the Arctic has also helped support this larger weather pattern.
Nor’easter Potential
With such dynamic weather pattern unfolding, forecast models are still showing some uncertainty surrounding the track and impacts of a potential nor’easter.
However, current forecasts show a potential nor’easter tracking much closer to the Eastern Seaboard as energy moves out of the Ohio Valley.
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(FOX Weather)
This setup scrapes the East Coast directly, delivering amplified coastal impacts headlined by rain and gusty winds. While inland areas could still see snow, accumulations would remain held in check by a lack of sub-freezing air, keeping the heaviest totals confined to high terrain.
(FOX Weather)
What We Know
What is becoming clearer is that a wave of low pressure will organize across the Ohio Valley late Wednesday before tracking toward the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by late Thursday.
The developing system is expected to spread widespread rain across the East, with accumulating snow most likely across the higher elevations of New England and the interior Northeast.
Although cold air will be limited, some snow is still expected across parts of Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire and upstate New York, with snow potentially extending south into the Appalachians.
NEW YORK CITY – FEBRUARY 06: People walk through light morning snow in Brooklyn on February 06, 2025 in New York City. New York City received about an inch of snow before the precipitation turned into all rain.
(Spencer Platt/Getty Images / Getty Images)
Regardless of the storm’s eventual track, any snow that mixes in closer to the coast along the I-95 corridor is unlikely to accumulate.
Intermittent rain, surface temperatures and a lack of cold air will make it difficult for the snow to stick.
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FILE – A snow plow clears a pathway from snow on February 9, 2025 in Boston, Massachusetts.
(Getty Images)
Day-by-Day Timeline
According to the FOX Forecast Center, the system will begin taking shape as it moves across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Rain is expected late Wednesday across Indiana down into the Tennessee Valley.
By Thursday, the initial low will advance toward the Northeast. Cold air will remain to the north, causing mostly rain.
Scattered showers could reach the I-95 corridor and cause minor travel delays, but overall impacts are expected to remain limited.
“Temperatures will turn noticeably colder beginning Friday, with the cooler pattern likely continuing through next weekend.”
On Friday, the low will track toward the coast and attempt to strengthen. With cold air still limited, the best chances for accumulating snow will be concentrated across northern New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.
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By Saturday, the storm is expected to pull away toward Canada. However, moisture and colder northwesterly winds could bring lingering snow showers from Maine south through the Appalachians, including parts of upstate New York and central Pennsylvania.
Snow falls in Hagerstown, Maryland ahead of a nor’easter on Jan. 6, 2024.
(Brandy Campbell / FOX Weather)
Behind the departing storm, a late-autumn air mass will settle across the region, sending afternoon temperatures into the 30s for more than 110 million people across the Northeast and surrounding areas.
A split in temperatures trailing behind
The change will start when colder air shifts into the eastern United States with warmer weather building across the West.
Beginning late Friday, cold air from Canada will spread across the eastern United States.
High temperatures could remain in the 30s or 40s across the Northeast, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, with lows plummeting into the 20s and 30s.
(FOX Weather)
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Along with that, there is a possibility that this cold air could reach the Gulf Coast and Florida by Sunday.
“To give an idea of how big the swing could be, on Tuesday over 300 million Americans will be above average and only a little over 4 million Americans will be below average,” the FOX Forecast Center said. “By Saturday, that number exceeds 160 million Americans below average and likely even higher into Sunday.”
A person walks in freezing cold temperatures.
(ANGELA WEISS / AFP / Getty Images)
While the eastern United States is under a cold spell, the west will experience warmer and drier conditions.
Cities from California to the Great Basin and desert Southwest could see temperatures 10-20 degrees above average.
Stick with FOX Weather as this storm continues to develop.
