Erik ten Hag has claimed you need to score 85 to 90 goals to win the Premier League – but Arsenal have already proven the former Manchester United boss wrong.
The Dutchman was at the helm at Old Trafford for more than two years before his sacking in October 2024. He helped the Red Devils finish third in his first season but could only muster an eighth-place finish in the 2023/24 campaign. He did, however, win two trophies in the form of the FA Cup and League Cup.
During this same period, Arsenal were building under Mikel Arteta and emerged into surprise title challengers in the 2022/23 campaign, finishing second behind Man City. Two more second-place finishes would follow before the north Londoners would finally win their first title in 22 years in May.
What was interesting about the Gunners last season, though, was how solid they were in defence. They conceded just 27 goals in the league, keeping 19 clean sheets in the process. This meant less burden was put on scoring goals and Arteta’s side won the league having scored 71 goals. Not since Leicester City in 2015/16 (68) have the Premier League champions scored fewer goals.
Ten Hag, speaking in an in-depth interview with The Athletic, opened up on the importance of data and claimed most Premier League champions need to score 85 to 90 goals in order to win the league. The Dutchman said: “Seven points where I judge the player. Technical ability, for me, is most important. Second is game intelligence and cognition. Third, you need athleticism, then lifestyle. Determination. Resilience and robustness to play every third day. And then we want to be always offensive.
Make sure you never miss the latest Tottenham news and opinion by making football.london one of your Google preferred sources.
“For instance, when I came to United, we didn’t have the scoring ability to be in the top four. I will not say football is mathematics, but a bit of logic is in it. For us at Twente, we need 70 goals if you want to be in fourth position. When you want to win the Premier League, you need 85, 90 goals.
“I use this every day, so it should not be a document in a drawer. That is winning culture, if we match what we described. We use a lot of data to see new signings match our style of play.”
To be fair to Ten Hag, the Premier League champions in four consecutive seasons (between 2020/21 and 2024/25) did score at least 85 goals. Last season, Arsenal scoring 71 goals and still romping to the title perhaps simply shows Arteta’s coaching methods, with the Spaniard repeatedly speaking about the need to be solid defensively.
In 2024, Arteta said: “The key is that everybody goes 100 miles per hour for every ball. Our strikers, our wingers, our attacking midfielders, they have a love for defending. Installing that within the players is something really important. Applauding and paying compliments to that as well, so when those defensive actions happen, they are valued as much as the attacking ones. If you want to win consistently, that door has to be shut.”
This season, Arsenal have scored 13 goals, whereas the likes of Man City, Brighton and Chelsea have all scored more. The Gunners boast the best defence in the league, however, and have conceded just five goals, recording yet another clean sheet against Everton on Saturday.
Put simply, Arteta won’t really care how many goals his side score or concede as long as they are top of the league after 38 games. It’s just interesting that, given Ten Hag’s recent goalscoring claim, Arteta has already proven it to be incorrect.
