Hull, Coventry and Ipswich have already collected 24 points between them after six games, so the conversation is starting to shift from pre-season vibes on whether all three newly-promoted clubs will be relegated to which established Premier League names could be in the scrap for survival.
The Premier League’s newly-promoted sides have often struggled to bridge the gap, with two consecutive seasons in 2023/24 and 2024/25 seeing all three newcomers relegated before Leeds and Sunderland helped buck that trend last season.
The lesson teams are learning is that survival is possible when a promoted team gets their recruitment, organisation and mentality right.
Hull and Ipswich already have nine points, while Coventry, following their 4-1 hammering of Newcastle, are on six.
No newly-promoted Premier League club since 1995/96 with at least 10 points after their first six games has subsequently been relegated (nine teams reached that points haul). The last nine newly-promoted teams to get nine or more points from their first six matches have all survived, which bodes well for Hull and Ipswich.
Coventry’s emphatic victory over Newcastle on Monday night was particularly significant. Frank Lampard’s side had started the campaign with four defeats and no goals, but two consecutive victories have transformed the mood around the club.
Ipswich, meanwhile, have shown the sort of resilience that can make the difference over a 38-game season, snatching a dramatic late win against Fulham. Hull have also put together a surprising run of results, showing they can compete and collect points against established top-flight opposition.
Three promoted clubs staying up would mean three other sides have to take their place, of course, potentially putting a supposedly safe mid-table club or a big-name team in genuine danger.
Hull, Ipswich and Coventry are outside the relegation zone and the early evidence suggests this is not simply a case of one promoted side riding a wave of momentum.
There is a collective challenge to the established order developing here.
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FREE TO WATCH: Highlights from the Premier League match between Coventry City and Newcastle United
Look at the early warning signs.
Fulham, Tottenham and Bournemouth fill the bottom three spots at the minute and are winless after six games, while, like Bournemouth, Sunderland have a European campaign to negotiate and only have a win over Fulham on the board this season.
Aston Villa and Newcastle are going through big transition seasons and the bookmakers have Manchester City as third favourites for relegation with the possibility of a points deduction on the table following the independent commission finding them in breach of the Premier League’s financial rules – City have denied wrongdoing and have lodged an appeal.
The danger is that poor form and the increased workload from potential European commitments can quickly become a crisis when confidence drains away and the pressure starts to build. The early relegation picture already suggests some established sides have reason to be concerned.
With Hull, Coventry and Ipswich refusing to follow the script, nobody should assume the three pre-season favourites for the drop are going down.
The relegation equation has certainly changed.
