You can say a lot of things about the Trump administration, but boring is not one of them. Over the last year and a half, investors have ridden a roller coaster of erratic trade policy, military conflicts, and executive actions. And throughout it all, the S&P 500 index (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has risen by a solid 12% year to date, keeping the naysayers on their toes.
That said, while stocks have held up well, the bond market is flashing increasingly alarming warning signs. Spiking inflation and recent remarks from the president himself suggest things could get much worse before they get better. Let’s dig deeper into what might come next.
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How much longer will the markets like Trump?
Politics usually doesn’t directly impact the stock market, but it can influence the economic environment in which companies and individuals operate. And historically, Trump has done a good job of keeping Wall Street happy. His One Big Beautiful Bill Act has helped lower the corporate tax burden, while other policies have reduced regulation and red tape, especially for energy and technology companies.
That said, the situation hasn’t been all peaches and cream. The White House has also pursued less popular policies, including a wide array of tariffs against many of America’s biggest trading partners, along with a war in Iran, which has sent the price of Brent crude up 80% year to date.
These decisions come at a particularly bad time for the U.S. economy because they help keep inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. This prompts the central bank to adopt a more hawkish monetary policy by raising its benchmark interest rate. Higher rates translate to a higher cost of capital, which can reduce the amount of money companies have left to return to shareholders or invest in growing their operations.
Higher rates can also hurt the government itself by increasing the amount of money it needs to pay to refinance its $40 trillion debt mountain.
The bond market flashes a warning sign
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the U.S. will likely be unable to grow its way out of its current debt crisis. But instead of making meaningful cuts, the White House seems to be moving toward more spending, with the Pentagon requesting a record $1.5 trillion military budget for 2027. The situation has alarmed international investors who have begun selling off U.S. debt, causing yields to rise.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury has broken past a crucial psychological support level at 5%. It is now at or near its highest level in over 20 years.
Government debt represents the risk-free rate in the U.S. economy. And when yields rise, these safe, reliable bonds start to become an attractive alternative to stocks, which can cause the S&P 500 to underperform. However, the biggest warning so far has come from Trump himself.
Trump has a devastating warning for investors
Earlier this month, Trump stated that “certain levels of inflation” could help “rapidly” pay down the national debt. The logic may be that as the value of the dollar decreases, so will the value of the debt. And this statement may indicate that the White House is willing to tolerate rising prices for much longer than regular investors are comfortable with.
If this is true, it could have a devastating impact on savers and investors — especially those with a high exposure to fixed income. In times like these, it’s hard not to feel nervous whether you are holding stocks, bonds, or cash, but over the long term, diversification may be the best way to minimize the potential damage of another inflation surge. Investors should make sure to have exposure to a wide variety of asset classes to avoid being exposed to downside in any particular one.
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Will Ebiefung has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
