Micron (NASDAQ: MU) has had a fantastic year, with the stock up over 200%.
The memory maker became the center of the next major bottleneck in artificial intelligence. As clusters of graphics processing units (GPUs) scaled to meet the needs of larger AI models, memory, which feeds data to the GPUs in various capacities, also came into high demand.
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Memory prices soared, resulting in fantastic results for companies like Micron. Here’s what $6,000 invested in the stock could be worth by 2029.
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Wall Street expects Micron’s earnings to soar
Micron is one of the largest makers of NAND flash memory and dynamic random-access memory (DRAM), both of which play different roles in feeding data to GPUs.
NAND is cheaper and offers high-capacity storage useful for holding the massive data sets that feed GPUs during training.
DRAM is high-speed memory that holds data only while powered. In AI systems, stacks of DRAM silicon are used to create high bandwidth memory (HBM), which sits next to GPUs and holds model parameters during training and inference.
Due to the massive demand for AI and, therefore, GPUs and data, Micron COO Manish Bhatia said on the company’s most recent earnings call that “we really don’t have line of sight to when supply and demand balances.”
Memory companies are often viewed as cyclical because it’s difficult to match supply with demand, which can result in a supply glut at some point in the cycle. In this super-charged cycle, many investors have wondered if things will be different.
Micron has secured 16 Strategic Customer Agreements, with deals running three to five years, an atypical development for memory companies.
As a result of all this, Micron’s earnings are projected to soar. Micron recently completed its fiscal year 2026 (ending Aug. 26), reporting diluted earnings per share of over $74. For fiscal year 2027, Wall Street consensus estimates project Micron’s earnings to surge to over $172 per share, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence.
In fiscal 2029, the 10 Wall Street analysts who have submitted estimates to S&P Global expect Micron’s earnings to exceed $212 per share. Valuing Micron on its current forward 12-month earnings of roughly $172, the stock trades at a 5.65x multiple.
If I simply carry that multiple forward, Micron should trade at $1,197 per share in 2028, based on its forward projected earnings for fiscal 2029. That implies roughly 23% upside, meaning a $6,000 investment would be worth $7,380.
What if this cycle really is different and the stock rerates?
Currently, the market largely still doesn’t believe this cycle is different, which is why Micron, despite significantly higher earnings, trades at a mid-single-digit multiple.
Some on Wall Street believe the company deserves more credit. D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria stated in a recent research note earlier this month that “investors are early in their journey of understanding Micron’s value, and that journey will lead them to assigning a far higher multiple.”
The growth in earnings has been staggering, given that Micron generated only $7.59 in diluted earnings per share in fiscal 2025. If it can maintain earnings in the high $100s or low $200s, then Luria is likely right and the stock will rerate.
A 10x forward earnings multiple would imply a $2,120 stock price based on the fiscal 2029 earnings estimate, suggesting more than double Micron’s current price. In that case, a $6,000 investment would be worth roughly $12,940 in 2028.
Investors are right to be skeptical, because it’s quite possible Micron and other memory makers are over-earning.
Recently, reports of a new memory chip from China that could fit more memory in a denser area spooked the market, as did reports from South Korea citing industry experts who believe heavy supply will enter the market in 2029.
So, it’s tough to predict how sustainable Micron’s earnings are. That’s why I believe owning some Micron stock is fine right now, but investors won’t want to go in too heavy on the stock, which could be very volatile, even long-term.
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Bram Berkowitz has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Micron Technology and S&P Global. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
