ALEKSANDAR VUCIC has ruled Serbia for 14 years, controlling its media, economy and police so completely that the country was not considered a true democracy. But it turned out to be democratic enough. Less than two hours after the polls closed in the legislative election on October 25th, Mr Vucic, who was previously president but was in the running to be prime minister, conceded defeat to a grassroots student movement with no clear public policies or leadership. Polls had suggested his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) might lose, but none had predicted the apparent scale of the rout.
Mr Vucic’s fall will be compared to that of Viktor Orban, Hungary’s former populist strongman, who was defeated in April. As in Hungary, the opposition’s victory means not just a change of government; it could herald the dismantling of the country’s semi-autocratic system of rule. According to Ivan Vejvoda, a Serbian political scientist at the Austrian Institute for International Affairs, it is a political earthquake comparable to the fall of Slobodan Milosevic, Serbia’s wartime leader, 26 years ago.
The opposition Student List won 53% of the vote, compared with 39% for the SNS. That would give the students about 140 seats in the 250-seat legislature, while the SNS gets about 103. The crucial factor was turnout. At the Student List’s headquarters on the evening of the vote, Dejan Soskic, a former governor of Serbia’s national bank and a candidate to be an MP, said the group expected to win if turnout exceeded 63%. In the end it was 69%.
During the day the mood in Belgrade, the capital, had been tense, with riot police deployed in the city centre and groups of hooded young men—presumably hired toughs—at a pro-government encampment next to the presidential building. Once Mr Vucic conceded, the pro-regime forces vanished, the police departed and a jubilant crowd destroyed the camp. Tens of thousands of citizens poured onto the streets to dance and celebrate.
After two terms as president, Mr Vucic was ineligible to run again and had stepped down early to run for prime minister. He blamed his loss on a conspiracy organised by “various European countries and the US’s deep state, the one that is against President Trump”. In fact the group that beat him is a leaderless movement that grew out of years of student-led protests against mining projects and corruption. It makes its decisions in university “plenums”, which selected 250 candidates for parliament. None of the candidates are students; they include academics, doctors, actors and other prominent figures from civil society.
The source of Mr Vucic’s defeat lies in Serbia’s growing corruption and authoritarianism, which led to successive waves of protests. In 2021 tens of thousands of Serbs demonstrated against a planned lithium mine. The government revoked the mine’s permit, but reinstated it in 2024 just before signing a strategic partnership with the European Union aimed at reducing dependence on Chinese batteries for electric vehicles. This provoked another upsurge in protests.
Then in November 2024 a railway-station canopy collapsed, killing 16. China has become a big investor in Serbia under Mr Vucic, and the canopy construction had been contracted through a Chinese consortium, though sub-contracted to Serbian companies; there were widespread allegations of corruption. Students led mass demonstrations, ultimately demanding that Serbia’s government, administrative and judicial system, which they said had been captured by Mr Vucic and his party, be purged and rejuvenated. In the election, the Student List campaigned under the slogan “Serbia or the Mafia”. It emphasised fighting corruption, restoring judicial and media freedom, modernising education and lowering the price of medicines.
The students struggled at times to communicate. Over the past 14 years most of the country’s media has been brought under the control of Mr Vucic and his supporters. But some independent outlets still exist. Over the past two weeks they broke several stories that highlighted government corruption. One involved a whistleblower who said he was paid for “phantom jobs” by public companies; his real task was to provide hired muscle to the SNS to provoke violent incidents with students, which could then be blamed on them.
Another concerned leaked chat messages between members of an organised crime gang, some of which allegedly came from Mr Vucic. Neither Mr Vucic nor his party rebutted the story. Gordana Andric of the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network says they feared “draw[ing] people’s attention to the stories”.
Given the size of the Student List’s victory, a new government could be formed quickly. Mr Soskic is expected to play a prominent role. A presidential election to replace Mr Vucic must be held by the end of December. Radomir Saicic, a conservative chemistry professor, is considered a strong candidate.
The student movement has kept many of its policy positions vague in order to gather the broadest possible support from anyone opposed to the government. But it has specified some views on foreign policy. It will maintain Mr Vucic’s policy of not imposing sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. It also wants to end Serbian arms exports to Ukraine and Israel, and to hold a referendum on joining the EU. It pledges not to recognise Kosovo, which declared independence from Serbia in 2008, without first holding a referendum.
Mr Vucic has lost control of the country he reshaped during his decade and a half in power. His party, which was above all a machine for distributing jobs and influence, could disintegrate now that it lacks the power to do so. The students have ousted their country’s leader on an “anything-but-Vucic ticket”. Building a coherent government will be a challenge of an entirely different order.
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