Tesla TSLA is slated to release third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 21, after the closing bell. The company’s automotive business remains a key focus as vehicle deliveries show mixed trends, with year-over-year declines despite a sequential increase. Tesla’s ability to sustain vehicle demand, manage costs and improve profitability will be important factors.
TSLA missed earnings estimates in two of the trailing four quarters, with the average negative surprise being 3.7%.
Tesla, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Tesla, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Tesla, Inc. Quote
Q2 2026 Highlights
Tesla’s second-quarter production totaled 451,758 vehicles (442,936 Model 3/Y and 8,822 other models), up 10% year over year. The company delivered 480,126 vehicles worldwide, up 25% from 384,122 units in the year-ago quarter, setting a record for second-quarter deliveries. Model 3/Y deliveries rose 25% year over year to 467,762 units, while deliveries of other models increased 19% to 12,364 units.
Total automotive revenues of $20.5 billion rose 23% year over year. Automotive sales, excluding revenues from leasing and regulatory credits, totaled $20 billion, while automotive regulatory credit revenue declined to $146 million from $439 million in the year-ago quarter. Automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits was 16.3% compared with 15% a year earlier and 19.2% in the preceding quarter.
TSLA to Face Margin Pressure in Q3
Tesla’s third-quarter delivery report provides an early indication of automotive demand ahead of its earnings release. The company delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter, up from 480,126 in the second quarter, but down 2.1% year over year. Model 3/Y deliveries reached 478,237 units, while deliveries of other models totaled 8,295. Production was 464,391 vehicles, below deliveries for the quarter.
Tesla cautioned that vehicle deliveries alone do not determine quarterly financial results, which also depend on average selling prices, cost of sales, foreign-exchange movements and other factors. In its second-quarter 2026 update, the company said it remains focused on maximizing factory capacity utilization and growing vehicle sales through a differentiated product portfolio. Tesla also plans to optimize existing production capacity before building new factories and production lines.
Competitive pressure in the electric vehicle market, production costs, changes in vehicle mix and average selling prices may affect revenue and margin growth. Our model predicts gross profit from automotive sales at $3.39 billion, down 0.6% from the year-ago quarter level.
The company’s ability to sustain customer demand while protecting automotive margins will therefore remain an important factor in assessing the segment’s performance.
Overall Earnings & Revenue Projections for Tesla
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter sales and earnings is pegged at $27.8 billion and 43 cents/share. The consensus mark for earnings per share has moved down by 3 cents over the past 30 days.
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Tesla, as it does not have the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a favorable Zacks Rank. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
The company has an Earnings ESP of -11.35% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) at present.
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are a few players from the auto space that, per our model, have the right ingredients to post an earnings beat this time.
Garrett Motion Inc. GTX is slated to release third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 22. The company has an Earnings ESP of +1.24% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Garrett’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at 49 cents per share and $945.6 million. GTX surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 16.76%.
Rivian Automotive, Inc. RIVN is slated to release third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 29. The company has an Earnings ESP of +7.38% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rivian’s to-be-reported quarter’s loss and revenues is pegged at 66 cents per share and $1.97 billion. RIVN surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 15.14%.
Lear Corporation LEA is slated to release third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 30. The company has an Earnings ESP of +3.26% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lear’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $3.28 per share and $5.8 billion. LEA surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 13.49%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Radical New Technology Could Hand Investors Huge Gains
Quantum Computing is the next technological revolution, and it could be even more advanced than AI.
While some believed the technology was years away, it is already present and moving fast. Large hyperscalers, such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Oracle, and even Meta and Tesla, are scrambling to integrate quantum computing into their infrastructure.
Senior Stock Strategist Kevin Cook reveals 7 carefully selected stocks poised to dominate the quantum computing landscape in his report, Beyond AI: The Quantum Leap in Computing Power.
Kevin was among the early experts who recognized NVIDIA’s enormous potential back in 2016. Now, he has keyed in on what could be “the next big thing” in quantum computing supremacy. Today, you have a rare chance to position your portfolio at the forefront of this opportunity.
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Lear Corporation (LEA) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) : Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
