Tesla TSLA is set to release third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 21, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at 44 cents per share and $27.8 billion, respectively.
The consensus mark for third-quarter earnings has declined 3 cents in the past 30 days. The estimate for the bottom line implies a 12% contraction from the year-ago levels. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year fall of 1%.
In the second quarter of 2026, the company missed earnings estimates by 34%. In the trailing four quarters, Tesla missed earnings estimates twice and beat twice, with the average negative earnings surprise being 3.7%.
Tesla, Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Tesla, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Tesla, Inc. Quote
Factors Shaping Q3 Results
Tesla reported third-quarter 2026 deliveries of 486,532 vehicles, up 1.3% sequentially but down 2.1% year over year. The company delivered 478,237 Model 3/Y vehicles and 8,295 other models compared with 481,166 and 15,933 units, respectively, in the year-ago quarter. The decline was primarily concentrated in other models, whose deliveries fell 47.9%.
A key factor behind the year-over-year decline is the challenging comparison with the third quarter of 2025, when Tesla delivered a record 497,099 vehicles amid a rush to purchase electric vehicles (EVs) before the expiration of the $7,500 U.S. federal EV tax credit on Sept. 30, 2025. This demand pull-forward boosted the year-ago quarter’s deliveries. Despite the year-over-year decrease, Tesla’s third-quarter 2026 deliveries rose 1.3% sequentially, supported by a recovery in European sales and stronger demand for China-made vehicles in international markets. China-made Model 3 and Model Y sales, including exports, increased 5% year over year in September.
We expect revenues from automotive sales to be $20.69 billion, while automotive gross margin is projected at 17.3%. Vehicle deliveries, pricing and production costs are likely to have influenced the company’s automotive performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
Tesla’s Energy Generation and Storage segment remains a potential growth driver, supported by demand for its Megapack and Powerwall products. The company deployed 13.7 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of energy storage products in the third quarter, up 9.6% from the year-ago period and 1.5% from 13.5 GWh in the second quarter of 2026. This continued increase in deployments might have supported higher energy-related revenues.
We expect revenues from the Energy Generation and Storage segment to be $3.76 billion, implying 10.2% year-over-year growth. Our estimate for revenues from the Services and Other segment is $4.29 billion, indicating 23.3% year-over-year growth.
What Does Our Model Say?
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Tesla this earnings season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is not the case here.
Earnings ESP:Tesla has an Earnings ESP of -12.85%. The Most Accurate Estimate is pegged at 6 cents, below the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Zacks Rank: Tesla currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are a few players from the auto space that, per our model, have the right ingredients to post an earnings beat this time.
Garrett Motion Inc. GTX is slated to release third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 22. The company has an Earnings ESP of +1.24% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Garrett’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at 49 cents per share and $945.6 million. GTX surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 16.76%.
Rivian Automotive, Inc. RIVN is slated to release third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 29. The company has an Earnings ESP of +7.38% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Rivian’s to-be-reported quarter’s loss and revenues is pegged at 66 cents per share and $1.97 billion. RIVN surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 15.14%.
Lear Corporation LEA is slated to release third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 30. The company has an Earnings ESP of +3.26% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lear’s to-be-reported quarter’s earnings and revenues is pegged at $3.28 per share and $5.8 billion. LEA surpassed earnings estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 13.49%. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
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Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Lear Corporation (LEA) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX) : Free Stock Analysis Report
Rivian Automotive, Inc. (RIVN) : Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
