Chikkamagaluru: The damage to India’s coffee plantations from a brewing climate crisis may extend well beyond the current harvest, with prolonged climatic stress threatening to exact a heavier toll on production in the subsequent crop year. Even as super El Niño conditions intensify over the Indian subcontinent, rising mercury levels, erratic rainfall and prolonged dry spells threaten to depress coffee output in 2026-27.While the United Planters’ Association of South India (UPASI) anticipates a decline of 7–10% in coffee production in south India and the Northeast, Karnataka Planters Association (KPA) has warned that Karnataka, which accounts for around 70% of India’s total coffee production, could face a sharper contraction of 15–20%. The concern comes amid the Coffee Board’s optimistic post-blossom estimate of 4 lakh metric tonnes (MT) for India in 2026-27, against the final output of 3.7 lakh MT in the 2025-26 crop year.Ahead of the KPA’s 68th annual general body meeting in Chikkamagaluru Monday, office-bearers of both associations indicated that coffee prices in the Indian and global market are unlikely to witness significant volatility during 2026-27.“The crisis may not fully unfold in 2026, as we have experienced some erratic rainfall in Aug and Sept, and the forecast indicates a likely near-normal Northeast monsoon. However, the real danger may lie beyond this year’s harvest. If the ongoing heat stress continues alongside prolonged dry spells in early 2027, it could affect the productivity. The extent of the damage will depend on the duration and intensity of the stress, the recovery in rainfall and the condition of the plantations,” said Sahadev Balakrishna, chairperson of the Coffee Committee of UPASI.UPASI’s estimates indicate that Arabica production could fall to around one lakh MT from the Coffee Board’s estimate of 1.2 lakh MT. Robusta production, too, is expected to decline by around 4–9 lakh tonnes as against 2.8 lakh metric tonnes estimate.Karnataka at the centre of the crisisSalman Baseer, president of the KPA, said Karnataka’s post-blossom estimate stands at 2.8 lakh MT, comprising 84,015 MT of Arabica and 1.9 lakh MT of Robusta, compared with the final output of 2.6 lakh MT in 2025-26. “However, given the drought conditions, production is likely to decline by 15–20%. This would be a severe setback for the state’s plantation economy. We have therefore appealed to both the state and central govts to intervene and help the sector tide over the unfolding crisis,” Baseer said.KPA office-bearers said the coming months would be crucial in determining the extent of the damage.
