By Robert Petrucci Robert P.
Large players in the energy markets have a world of experience and understand the commodity they trade within has a complex list of influences including production, logistics and global politics – and sometimes war. The price of WTI Crude Oil has maintained a higher cautious stance and last week’s price action defined the existing realm with another flurry of influences which mirrored the sentence above. Upon its opening tomorrow retail traders trying to pursue the momentum swings will need to take into consideration that large players in WTI Crude Oil may be feeling motion sickness.
Supply Relief and Disruption Risks Send Mixed Signals
Opportunities continue to be demonstrated on a daily (and sometime hourly) basis regarding possible sentiment shifts in WTI Crude Oil. The potential of developing news has become so frequent and evident that emerging reports may feel almost impossible to believe even for the most experienced players in the commodity. In the past couple of days, news has been confirmed by the U.S White House that an energy deal has been made with Russia to secure diesel, which putting aside the political implications (and backstabbing) should ease some pressures on the U.S logistics sector.
But also there has been more military escalation between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis which is certain to cause nervousness about possible disruption of supply. And not to be outdone regarding these two points, the Iran and U.S conflict is still shadowing everything and is unresolved, and seemingly headed towards more warfare. Day traders will be confronted by these considerations as prices develop in WTI Crude Oil early Monday.
WTI Holds Above $90 as Buying Emerges Near $91
WTI Crude Oil finished Friday’s cash market trading above $93.00 and on Thursday came within sight of the 95.00 realm. While the energy deal made between the U.S and Russia may alleviate some supply pressure on U.S transportation problems, it also highlights the importance of the Middle East production and the reliance global economies place on its ability. The price of WTI Crude Oil has remained solidly above the $90.00 support level and in fact has shown a tendency to incrementally increase the past handful of days, this with the emergence technically of $91.00 looking like an area that when challenged has sparked solid buying.
And the clock is ticking on the situation between Iran and the U.S and what is beginning to feel like a coming end game. While the situation between Saudi Arabia and the Iranian proxies – including the Houthis – has certainly risen, what large players in WTI Crude Oil are likely bracing for is a double feature including continues warfare on the Saudi Arabian front with the possible addition of a return to large scale actions on and from Iran. Prices in the energy sector are reacting to this sentiment.
Shipping Access Has Yet to Resolve Supply Concerns
WTI Crude Oil is within an uncomfortable higher price range. Instead of becoming calmer the situation and potential knock on effects as the Middle East situation continues has become more dangerous for large players in the market as supply comes into question. The U.S will point to oil tankers being able to use the Strait of Hormuz and quite possibly this is correct as the U.S Navy controls the shipping lanes, but large doubts remain about vulnerability and this is causing the flirtation with higher prices. Reversals lower must be watched by retail traders as a barometer of potential calm, but the news heard from the Middle East the past couple of days will make for a nervous WTI Crude Oil market near-term and perhaps tests of additional higher prices if concerns stay heightened.
WTI Crude Oil Price Chart – Upper and Lower Range Boundaries
What Could Ease WTI’s Supply Risk Premium?
Perhaps President Trump will try to pull a rabbit out of a hat in the coming days and present yet another reason why the price of WTI Crude Oil will be lower in the future. But promises about the future do not solve today’s problems. Reversals remains part of the intraday landscape in the energy sector and sentiment shifts can cause prices to spike lower. Yet, there are likely too many large players that remain nervous and this is going to cause a constant test of price. The higher realm of WTI Crude Oil is unlikely to disappear in the coming days.
The Next Test Is Whether Price Reversals Persist
WTI Crude Oil remains one of the biggest games in town regarding its current speculative landscape. Retail traders must remain focused on technical fluctuations as resistance and support levels are tested, but the constant storm of emerging news from the Middle East remains the main driver of price. Intraday volatility will remain a staple in the marketplace near-term for all traders – big and small.
WTI Crude Oil: Key Levels and the Next Sentiment Test
The following levels provide reference points for assessing whether supply concerns continue to support WTI or whether recent buying begins to fade. They are markers for interpreting price behaviour, rather than predetermined targets.
|
Level |
What to watch |
|---|---|
|
Near-term resistance: $93.85 |
A sustained move above this level would suggest renewed buying interest. A brief break followed by a retreat would offer less evidence of a lasting sentiment shift. |
|
Near-term support: $92.50 |
Holding this area would be consistent with the draft’s picture of an elevated market. Sustained trading below it would challenge the strength of recent buying. |
|
Higher reference level: $95.60 |
This becomes a relevant upside reference if WTI establishes itself above $93.85, rather than simply testing resistance intraday. |
|
Lower reference level: $90.80 |
This is a lower reference if $92.50 gives way, close to the $91 area where the article identifies recent buying interest. |
The next sessions leave an important question open: can any easing in supply concerns produce a lasting change in price behaviour, or do buyers continue to respond to pullbacks? Attention rests on whether moves beyond these reference levels persist after the initial headline reaction. A brief spike or retreat may reveal less about underlying conviction than the market’s ability to hold a new range as further information emerges.
Ready to trade our WTI Crude Oil analysis? Here is our list of the best crude oil brokers worth checking out.
Robert Petrucci is a Market and Geopolitical Analyst at DailyForex with professional experience in the Forex, commodity, and broader financial markets dating back to 1993. His work focuses on risk analysis, macroeconomic themes, and how geopolitical events affect currencies, commodities, stock indices, and cryptocurrencies. Robert brings a conservative wealth management perspective from his long-standing advisory roles, translating complex market conditions into structured scenarios for traders and investors.
As seen on: Investing.com, TalkMarkets, Angry MetaTraders
