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This year’s Nobel Peace Prize winner is set to be unveiled this Friday, and the field appears to be wide open.
Last year’s award was presented to Venezuela’s Maria Corina Machado, a democracy and peace activist who sought to replace the Venezuelan government, despite the Norwegian Nobel Committee coming under intense pressure from Donald Trump to hand him the coveted award.
Machado symbolically handed her prize over to Trump, as a “recognition for his unique commitment with our freedom”, after the US forcibly removed Venezuela’s president Nicolas Maduro from power.
A number of high profile figures and organisations have been tipped for the 2026 prize, but experts warn last year’s controversy could affect this year’s result.
“I think last year’s events around the Nobel Peace Prize, Maria Corina Machado giving it to Trump afterwards, will affect some of the considerations that they make,” said Haakon Gjerloew, acting director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo.
“One worry the committee might have is whether awarding it to someone could put them under pressure from Donald Trump… I think the committee will consider whether the award does more harm than good,” he told Reuters.
The announcement is due to be made on 9 October at 11am CEST (10am BST) by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
The Independent takes a look at some of the potential contenders for this year’s prize.
Donald Trump
Donald Trump has fallen noticeably quiet on the subject ahead of the announcement this year – and it’s not hard to see why.
The White House berated the Norwegian Nobel Committee for placing “politics over peace” when the US president was passed over for the 2025 award.
In the year that has followed Trump has forcibly removed a world leader in Venezuela, launched an ongoing war in the Middle East, and caused chaos in Greenland with threats to annex the island.
The US capture of Maduro followed months of attacks on boats in the Caribbean sea that Washington said was involved in the drug trade.
Just two months later on 28 February, the US and Israel launched the war with Iran, a conflict that has dragged on for nearly eight months with no clear end in sight.
With days to go until the winner is announced, Trump nevertheless has odds of 12/1 according to bookmakers Ladbrokes.
Pope Leo XIV
Pope Leo XIV has made repeatedly calls for peace since he was elected as pontiff in May last year.
In September, he urged Ukraine and Russia to resume negotiations to end the conflict that is heading towards its sixth year.
“War has returned, even to Europe: a new senseless slaughter, claiming countless civilian lives every day,” the Pope told European leaders in Metz.
“We need … to show courage in negotiation and to be willing to give up some positions for the greater good of peace,” he added, invoking a similar 1917 appeal from Pope Benedict XV amid the carnage of World War I.
The American-born has also had high profile clashes with Donald Trump, after he spoke out against the Iran war the US president launched in February.
The bookies put the Pope’s odds at 12/1.
Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms
The organisation is high up on almost all of the bookies’ list of favourites, and has been touted by experts as a frontrunner for the prize.
Following major cuts to USAID and a reduction in international support for aid operations in Sudan, community and volunteer-led aid networks have provided critical services.
The Emergency Response Rooms is a large network of local civilian initiatives that has stepped up to fill the gap left by these cuts. It emerged as a local initiative and now operates in at least 13 provinces across Sudan, with 26,000 volunteers.
Dozens of charity kitchen workers have been killed in recent years, many of which were in Khartoum while the Sudanese capital was under RSF control, one worker said in February.
“These groups deliver essential humanitarian assistance in a highly complex conflict environment, with limited access to external resources and logistics,” said Mr Gjerløw in his personal 2026 Nobel Prize list, adding that “volunteers often operate in insecure areas, facing threats of harassment and violence”.
The charity is one of the favourites to win the prize, with 3/1 odds.
Mykola Kuleba / Save Ukraine
The Ukrainian children’s rights activist has been hailed for his work on children’s rights movements and child welfare reforms.
He is the founder and CEO of Save Ukraine, a charity that rehabilitates children impacted by the war in Ukraine.
Founded in 2014 after the Russian invasion and annexation of Crimea, it is now the largest humanitarian organisation dedicated to rescuing stolen Ukrainian children and providing critical support to families affected by war.
So far they have saved 1,763 children from Russia and Russian occupied territories of Ukraine.
The Committee to Protect Journalists
This press freedom organisation has been defending the rights of journalists around the world for more than 40 years.
Hundreds of journalists are attacked, imprisoned, or killed every year, but they advocate for their release and fight for their right to report the news safely and without fear of reprisal.
The CPJ works around the world, with a focus on reducing the number of journalists in prisons and battling censorship.
Yulia Navalnaya
The widow of the late Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny has become a vocal critic of the government in her own right.
After her husband’s death in an Arctic penal colony in 2024, she picked up his fight for democracy, justice, and the rule of law in Russia, and has been named among the favourites for a peace prize.
Last year, she spoke out about her husband’s death and accused the Russian state of planning his murder. Moscow has denied killing Navalny.
She has since spoken publicly about the state of Russian politics and freedom, and released videos on smart voting in the September Duma elections.
Bookies currently give her odds of 15/2 to win.
Doctors Without Borders
Doctors Without Borders, also known by its French name Médecins Sans Frontières, have worked in more than 70 countries in 2026.
Last year, they say they admitted more than 1.7m people to their hospitals and held more than 17m consultations, many in active war zones and places devastated by natural disasters.
MSF previously won the 1999 Nobel Peace Prize for their pioneering work on several continents.
The organization currently has odds of 4/1.
Vanessa Nakate
Vanessa Nakate is a 29-year-old climate activist from Uganda in east Africa. She shot to international fame in 2019 with her solitary climate strike.
Back then, she started the Vash Green schools project to bring solar electricity to schools in Africa, providing installations in dozens of schools and helping about 16,000 children.
Nakate is today a UNICEF Goodwill Ambassador who continues her work in raising awareness of the climate crisis and its disproportionate impact on Africa. Her current odds are 19/10.
Mark Carney
Mark Carney became prime minister of Canada last year, at a low point in relations with the United States.
The PM remained stoic in the face of harsh trade penalties from the US and has sought closer ties with Europe, earning a reputation for standing up to Trump.
Carney’s standing abroad took off in January of this year at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where he declared the old international order was not coming back and urged middle powers to work together rather than wait for its restoration.
His speech came as European leaders were confronting Trump’s push to acquire Greenland and tariff threats.
He briefly become the favourite on US-based prediction market Kalshi at the end of September, when traders put his chances at 14 per cent. His odds later fell.
“Trump will be unhappy whoever gets the Nobel,” Nelson Wiseman, professor emeritus at the University of Toronto, told the Associated Press. “If Carney got it, it would make relations with Canada rockier than they are.”
