Key Points
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Nvidia and AMD are two great ways to play the GPU market.
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Broadcom is a solid way to invest in custom AI chips.
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TSMC and ASML play critical roles in the semiconductor value chain, with minimal competition between them.
- 10 stocks we like better than Nvidia ›
Spending on artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure continues to soar, benefiting stocks across the semiconductor value chain. In June, Bloomberg Intelligence projected that spending on AI across hardware, software, and services will reach $2.3 trillion by 2032, with $658 billion spent on AI training and $1.3 billion on inference. It’s a big market that should produce many winners.
With that in mind, let’s look at what a roughly $5,100 investment spread across a basket of top AI infrastructure stocks — including Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD), Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM), and ASML (NASDAQ: ASML) — could return by 2030.
Missed AI’s “Act 1”? Act 2 Could Be 15x Bigger. Most investors think they missed the AI boat because they didn’t buy Nvidia in 2005. But according to our analysts, we’re only at the end of “Act 1″—the R&D phase. “Act 2” is the global rollout. Continue »
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Semiconductor stocks are often valued based on a forward P/E basis, so we’ll use that as our North Star when coming up with potential future stock prices. As such, for 2030 valuations, we’ll use 2031 analyst EPS estimates when available.
1. Nvidia
For our semiconductor basket, Nvidia is our primary play on AI training and the graphics processing unit (GPU) market. However, the company has really transformed itself into a complete AI player. With $940, you could buy four shares.
Analysts currently expect the stock to report adjusted EPS of $24.79 in fiscal 2032 (ending January), which is close to calendar year 2031. Applying a similar 15 times forward P/E multiple that it carries today would value the stock at $372, bringing your investment to nearly $1,500. That’s about a 60% return.
2. AMD
AMD is riding two of the market’s strongest trends. It is a strong player in the inference market, with GPUs for inference and agentic AI on CPUs. With $633, you could buy one share.
The current 2030 EPS consensus for AMD is $45.25, and assuming another 20% growth in 2031 would bring it to $54.30. That’s a huge surge from the $7.58 per share that analysts are projecting it to earn this year. Place a 20 times multiple on that given its growth, and the stock would be worth $1,086. That’s a 72% gain.
3. Broadcom
Broadcom is the basket’s investment in custom AI chips and networking. The AI ASIC (application-specific integrated circuit) market is expected to grow more quickly than the one for GPUs, and Broadcom is poised to be a prime beneficiary. With $710, you could buy two shares of the stock.
Analysts currently project that the company’s earnings will grow to $52.15 in fiscal 2031 (ending in October 2031). Put a 15 times multiple on that estimate, and the stock would trade at $782. That would be a 120% gain, increasing your investment to $1,564.
4. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is the world’s premier foundry, with a virtual monopoly on advanced chip manufacturing. An investment in the stock is a great way to play the overall chip boom. With $945, you can buy two shares.
The analyst consensus only goes out to 2028, with the consensus at $28.33. Assuming 25% growth the next year, 22.5% the year after, and 20% in 2031, that would bring its EPS to $39.80. Place a forward P/E of 17.5 times multiple on that (given its monopoly-type position), and you get a nearly $700 stock in 2030. That’s about a 48% gain, bringing the total investment to $1,400.
5. ASML
Without ASML, the entire AI boom would not be possible. The company has a monopoly on the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology used to make the critical components of advanced logic chips, like GPUs, and high bandwidth memory (HBM). With $1,865, you could buy one share of the Dutch company.
Because it is a monopoly, AMSL typically carries a very high multiple. For 2030, analysts project EPS of $101.57, and if we estimate another 10% growth, it would reach $111.72. Assign a 30 times multiple to that, and the stock would trade at $3,351, equaling an 80% gain.
The total
In total, your starting investment would be just below $5,100, and your 2030 ending investment would be worth $8,900. That’s a solid 75% gain in about four years.
Obviously, there are a whole lot of variables at play. If the AI infrastructure boom goes bust, you could see a negative return, but if earnings consistently move higher, which they tend to do, the stocks could also have much higher returns. Nonetheless, this looks like a solid basket of AI stocks to buy and hold for the long term.
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Geoffrey Seiler has positions in Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends ASML, Advanced Micro Devices, Broadcom, Nvidia, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
