As millions of Americans voted in the November 3 midterm elections, Álvaro Vanega was once again leaving Nicaragua. The 31-year-old left his two daughters in El Viejo and set out on what has been his only concern since they were born: to leave them something so they do not have to live the life he has lived — without a home of his own, without an education, working hard for low pay in the fields. He slept in Tegucigalpa, the Honduran capital, while, to the north, a powerful president suffered an electoral defeat. He reached Guatemala and walked until his feet gave out. On September 6, in Tecún Umán, at the border with Mexico, he joined others like him. There are about 1,500 of them walking together. So far they have only advanced as far as the Mexican town of Huixtla (about 80 kilometers or 50 miles from the border), but they already represent the migrant caravan that has sparked Donald Trump’s latest bout of ire.
In two years of Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration, this is the 24th caravan that has departed from the southern state of Chiapas, according to activist Luis Villagrán’s count, and the 10th, according to the federal government. It is the largest one this year, although a few months ago nearly 1,200 migrants gathered to travel the same route. At that time, the president of the United States published nothing, much less threatened the Mexican government with doubling tariffs if the caravan was not stopped. But between that episode and now, the midterms took place and Trump lost control of both chambers of Congress. Facing a crisis, the Republican has lashed out at two of his usual scapegoats: Mexico and migrants.
“The INVASION of our Country is taking place again,” Trump wrote Thursday on his social network Truth, where he blamed the Democratic Party for the migrants’ attempt to arrive (even though the elected officials have not yet taken office and therefore have not been able to change a single comma of current immigration policy). “Many of the people in these Caravans are those that various countries don’t want,” the president shouted online: “MEXICO MUST STOP THEM, NOW! and if they do not do so, the Tariffs on Mexico will be IMMEDIATELY DOUBLED.”
The message was received at the Mexican National Palace, where Sheinbaum calmly explained that “since President Trump took office no migrant caravan has reached the northern border.” And that is true. Human rights defender Villagrán notes that almost all the caravans have crossed Chiapas to the town of Arriaga, adjacent to the state of Oaxaca, and from there migrants have been moved to Tuxtla Gutiérrez or to the city of Oaxaca itself, where they are normally given a 30-day free transit permit.
“We inform people in the caravan that if their goal is to reach the United States, they will not be able to achieve it because that possibility does not exist,” Sheinbaum said, adding they are being offered the option to return “safely” or to stay in Mexico under “certain conditions.” “But the vast majority return to their countries of origin once they learn they will not be able to cross into the United States.” That happened with the caravan that left a few days ago with about 600 people. “They are in Arriaga and now fewer than 100 remain,” the Mexican president said. The remaining group has stayed behind waiting for the larger one that is now coming, Álvaro Vanega’s caravan.
Trump’s message on Thursday also reached the caravan. Vanega learned of it early (“I watch all the news programs”) and he admits to feeling fear. “There are 1,500 of us and we walk and contribute a little to the Mexican economy,” he says, alluding to purchases of water and some food and paying to use restrooms. He knows that this cannot compare to the trade between Mexico and the United States, its main commercial partner. “If the [U.S.] government doubles tariffs, it could be pressure on Mexico’s president and she might take action and say, ‘Well, it’s not in my interest to have tariffs raised; I’ll have to send those caravans back.’ That is the real terror,” he reasons.
The caravan is mostly made up of Hondurans, but there are also several dozen Nicaraguans, about 100 Guatemalans, and also Haitians, Venezuelans, Cubans, and Ecuadorians: “Oh, and a Turk too!,” Vanega adds. He learned about the group through social media, especially TikTok, Instagram, and WhatsApp channels: “There are no organizers.” For now, the migrants have decided to rest in Huixtla, where they are receiving care from several medical brigades. They were planning to continue the journey Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, another caravan is forming in Honduras, which Villagrán estimates has about 2,000 more people. “We are risking our lives on this road, but we are definitely giving it our all,” Álvaro says: “We tell Mexico’s president: ‘We are here honestly.’”
No change yet in migration policy
After his return to the White House in 2025, Trump rescinded all of his predecessor Joe Biden’s border policies that allowed migrants to request asylum in the United States. He also declared an emergency across the southern border and with that effectively halted nearly all entry of immigrants from Mexico. The president additionally launched accelerated deportation procedures for anyone who crossed at unauthorized points. That has kept arrests at the border at historically low levels since February 2025. Those measures will remain, at least until 2028, when a new president is elected. Although some Democratic lawmakers have already called for immigration reform, so far nothing has changed as a result of the midterms.
At the local level, attention is focused on Texas, which shares the longest stretch of border with Mexico and has historically had the largest number of migrant crossings. After Democrat Gina Hinojosa’s midterm victory for governor of Texas, it is expected that the state’s cooperation with the federal government on immigration could be reduced. But it is not an issue that the newly elected politician has yet addressed in detail.
After 12 consecutive years in office, the Republican governor Greg Abbott has implemented — either by decree or with the consent of the Republican-controlled state assembly — multimillion-dollar measures to fortify the border with military forces on land, river, and air. He also issued and renewed disaster declarations (about 69 times) to freely mobilize resources and impose criminal penalties on migrants who crossed, and even announced that the state has financed almost 100 miles of border wall. On the campaign trail, Hinojosa called these measures “political grandstanding” that do not increase security in border communities. She promised to review their effectiveness, but so far she has not firmly committed to rescinding these measures.
Under threat of losing essential funding, Abbott also forced local authorities to cooperate with federal agents in detaining and deporting migrants across the state. This was one of the issues that motivated the shift from Republican to Democratic control in Texas, especially in border communities that voted for Trump in 2024.
Abbott’s handling of immigration has been harshly criticized by rights organizations, members of Congress, and analysts, who say he overstepped his authority by deciding on matters that are the exclusive competence of the federal government, such as immigration policy. On Thursday, Trump said everyone involved had been warned: “MEXICO, THE GOVERNOR OF TEXAS, THE VERY LIBERAL NEW GOVERNOR OF TEXAS, OUR GREAT BORDER PATROL, & ICE, HAVE BEEN SO INFORMED. There will be no leniency!,” he wrote. Any major changes in Texas will be seen starting January 19; they will not affect this particular caravan.
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