Prime Minister Mark Carney will clock about 36,000 kilometres over the next 10 days as he takes part in a series of European and Asian summits, and doubles back across two oceans to avoid crossing Russian airspace.
A meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping is perhaps the most consequential item on his agenda. Shenzhen, China, is the last stop on his agenda for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders’ meeting.
“We will discuss many things,” Carney said in Montreal on Tuesday, listing the “security situation around the world” as well as the two countries’ economic partnership — “something that is deepening but has clear guardrails.”
Carney also said that Canada would finally replace its ambassador to China. The post has been unfilled for six months, but Carney said the person has been selected and they’re in the process of agreeing with China on the appointment, which is a standard diplomatic process.
“It’s a little longer than we would have liked” since the post was filled, he said. “We would hope to make the announcement in very short order.”
A summit in Dublin
Carney’s first destination is Dublin, Ireland, where the European Political Community is holding its ninth summit on Thursday. The EPC is a venue where EU members can meet with non-members such as the U.K., Turkey, Iceland, Norway and Switzerland.
Since 2022, Ukraine has often been the main topic at EPC events, and that is expected to be the case in Dublin too, with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy in attendance.
Ireland has suffered a wave of bomb threats and cyberattacks in recent days that the government of Taoiseach Micheál Martin has said have a “Russian dimension.” Several flights on national carrier Aer Lingus and Irish discount airline Ryanair were delayed or diverted as a result of threats. In Dublin, office buildings, including national broadcaster RTÉ, had to be evacuated.
Carney is joining the summit as the only non-European invitee. It will be his second EPC summit, after attending one in Yerevan, Armenia, in May. It follows hard on the heels of a Canada-EU summit in Montreal, and fits neatly into the Carney agenda of greater integration with Europe.
As summits go, the EPC is considered fairly informal. There is no joint communiqué or statement to be negotiated, and a space called the leaders’ lounge is set up to facilitate spontaneous bilateral discussions.
The security around the event is less likely to be relaxed, however.
Last year’s summit in Copenhagen was preceded by incursions of large drones, forcing the closure of the city’s airport.
Europe has experienced a significant escalation in drone overflights and cyberattacks since then.
Talk of building a European “drone wall” to resist such incursions is ongoing and likely to be a major topic in Dublin.
Free trade talks with ‘Bongbong’
From Dublin, Carney will travel to Manila for the 49th summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
The shortest way to reach the Philippines from Ireland is to fly east, but that route would take the PM’s plane thousands of kilometres across Russia. So instead, Carney will cross back over the Atlantic, refuel in Anchorage, Alaska, and then cross the Pacific.
Canada is currently negotiating a free trade agreement with the ASEAN bloc, and also separately with host nation the Philippines.
The second of those two deals is much closer to fruition. Carney will meet with Filipino President Ferdinand (Bongbong) Marcos Jr. on Saturday.
Carney is seen with President of the Philippines Ferdinand Marcos Jr. at the ASEAN summit last year. (Adrian Wyld/The Canadian Press)
“I think we can expect that there will be a bilateral trade agreement of some kind that will be announced,” said Guy Saint-Jacques, former Canadian ambassador to China.
“It’s a developing country and they are looking for investment, they are looking for technologies to help them to develop, to protect their environment. They are probably looking also to get more Canadian food products, and also to export more of their products. They want to develop other export markets than China.”
Canada is keen to expand its agri-food exports to Asia, and to overcome trade obstacles that have emerged in recent years for Canadian pork, pulses and other products.
Currently, pork exports to the country are expected to drop, and Manila is set to impose a 60-day ban on pork imports starting a week after Carney’s visit.
But defence is also on the agenda in the Philippines. Canada has appointed a defence attaché to the region, based in Manila, a sign of the importance it gives to its missions in the area, which include dark vessel detection and presence patrols in contested waters.
The Philippines has had many issues exercising sovereignty over some of its waters and islands.
“We know that there will be more military-to-military exchanges,” Saint-Jacques said. “So the fact that the prime minister is visiting the country is a confirmation that we want to support and help the Philippines.”
China is not a member of ASEAN, but it is a “dialogue partner” and Chinese Premier Li Qiang is expected to be in Manila.
PM to meet PSPP in Cambodia
Carney will then move on to Siem Reap, Cambodia, to attend the Summit of the Francophonie, where he’s expected to meet with the new premier of Quebec, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon.
Carney is likely to use the summit for other bilateral meetings, with a focus on trade and investment. But Canada is also interested in hosting the Francophonie in 2028, and it’s possible that will be announced in Cambodia.
Quebec Premier Paul St-Pierre Plamondon will also be in Cambodia for the Francophonie summit. (Jacques Boissinot/The Canadian Press)
From Cambodia, Carney will fly 1,500 kilometres to Shenzhen, where Xi will host the APEC summit.
Shenzhen, which grew from a network of rural villages less than 50 years ago to a vast economic hub of nearly 19 million people, is a symbol of China’s rapid growth — now surpassing both Hong Kong and Singapore in GDP.
Carney is expected to meet privately with Xi at the summit.
Jeff Nankivell, president and CEO of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, spent years as a diplomat in the Canadian Embassy in Beijing. He says the relationship is recovering from a difficult decade marked by allegations of foreign interference and the detention of Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor.
“We lost a lot of trust in the last decade. That’s true on both sides,” he said.
“There is clearly a desire on the part of both governments to advance the relationship. And on the Canadian side there’s a note of caution, but the emphasis right now seems to be leaning forward to move further and faster in areas that are considered to be safe from a national security point of view.”
The “clear guardrails” that Carney referred to on Tuesday remain necessary, he said, and Canada’s allies expect it.
“We have to be careful really not to co-operate in areas that touch on national defence, on artificial intelligence, particularly anything to do with implanting artificial intelligence from China into core systems that are used by Canadians, and certain other aspects of high technology like areas of quantum research that could have a military application.”
U.S. President Donald Trump will also meet with Xi in Shenzhen, the White House has confirmed.
There is no word yet on a three-way Xi-Trump-Putin meeting proposed by the Russians — a meeting that most Western allies would prefer not happen.
Trump will also be in Manila, and will likely cross paths with Carney both there and in China, but no meetings between the two are on the schedule.
