Tariffs, technology, Taiwan
Stephen Olson, visiting senior fellow at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, warned that with electoral pressure behind him, Trump could become less constrained in pursuing an aggressive trade policy, including potentially imposing further tariffs on China and other Asian economies. Olson said, “Section 301 tariffs on excess capacity could be forthcoming shortly,” and he added that Democrats’ gains could embolden lawmakers to challenge Trump’s trade agenda and open the door to greater congressional scrutiny. Adrian Ang, research fellow and coordinator of the United States Programme at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said a Democratic-controlled Congress could take a “more hawkish (stance towards) China” than Trump himself, translating into pressure for tougher measures on trade and technology restrictions.
Ang also warned that renewed scrutiny could fall on a delayed US$14 billion US arms package for Taiwan, and he said “All of those, but especially the last item, will place stress on the new US-China constructive strategic stability” agreed by Trump and Xi. Chinese policy researcher Li Yaqi said Democrats could raise the political cost of Trump’s dealings with Beijing through tools including investigations, summoning administration officials, and influencing government spending.
Beijing’s stance and next steps
Beijing’s public posture in the sources emphasized non-interference and continued engagement, with Mao Ning saying, “China stands ready to continue working with the United States” on issues of common interest and areas of disagreement. The sources linked that stance to a trade truce that began in October 2025 and was extended until January 10 after a third summit between the two presidents within a year, while analysts weighed how Democratic control could narrow Trump’s maneuvering room on tariffs. Wu Xingbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, argued that Democrats controlling both houses could leave Trump with “less room to maneuver to use the tariff card in his negotiations with China,” while Drew Thompson said, “Congress will seize any opportunity to obstruct (Trump) over the next two years.”
On Taiwan, the sources said Trump had delayed for months a $14 billion weapons deal and that Beijing could use the remaining two years of his term to increase pressure on the island, especially if it sees Washington preoccupied or Trump willing to accept non-interference conditions. The sources also described analysts’ expectations that Beijing would continue working with Trump through high-level leader-to-leader communications with Xi Jinping, with Steve Tsang saying Beijing “will pace its steps” and “will not want to overdo it, for fear of pushing Trump toward behavior that is completely irresponsible.”
