USD/CHF’s rebound was capped at 0.8312 last week but failed to break through 0.8190 with subsequent fall. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, firm break of 0.8190 will extend the corrective fall from 0.8394 with another leg towards 38.2% retracement of 0.7603 to 0.8394 at 0.8092. On the upside, above 0.8312 will bring retest of 0.8394 high.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.7603 should at least be reversing the medium term trend. Focus is on 0.8332 support turned resistance (2023 low) for confirmation. Firm break there will target 61.8% retracement of 0.9200 (2025 high) to 0.7603 at 0.8590. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.7948 support holds.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It’s uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 M EMA (now at 0.8571) holds.
